#Ernesto to make 2nd landfall Today / Invest 92L

Ernesto about to cross the coast of Mexico near Coatzacoalcos.

Currently Ernesto is located at 18.3 North 94.0 West skirting along the Southern coast of the Bay of Campeche with sustained winds of 70 MPH and Higher Gusts, moving West-Southwest at 13 MPH and this direction of travel is expected to continue Today with a slight decrease in forward motion. The central Pressure is 993 MB or 29.32 inches. Ernesto is about 40 Miles East-Northeast of Coatzacoalcos Mexico.

‘If Ernesto continues his current track’ he looks to make landfall in the Los Tuxtlas area of south-central Mexico with the cities of Santiago Tuxtla, San Andres Tuxtla and Catemaco in his path. Tropical storm winds extend outward 140 miles from the center and will continue to spread westward ahead of the storm today. Hurricane conditions are still possible within the Warning area this morning.

Watches and Warnings

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Veracruz to Chilitepec Mexico.
* A Hurricane Watch is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla.
* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect North of Veracruz to Barra De Nautla, and East of Chilitepec to Campeche.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected with isolated areas of 15 inches in and around Tabasco, Veracruz, Puebla, and Northern Oaxaca through Friday causing life threatening Flash Flooding and Mudslides over higher terrain.

Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above Normal Tide level is anticipated in the Warning area and surrounding coastal areas of the Gulf coast of Mexico. Large and Dangerous waves near the coast will accompany the tidal surge.

A couple Satellite images of Ernesto as of 7:45 AM EDT TODAY

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems – Tropical Storm Ernesto

I’m still watching an area of interest in the south-central Atlantic about 1000 miles west of the southern Cape Verde Islands. Currently designated Invest 92L and moving Westward about 15 MPH this tropical wave has a 70% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so, maybe Gordon. I’m also watching another Tropical Wave exit the continent of Africa for possible development in the coming days as well.

Here’s the current Spaghetti Model for Invest 92L as of 8 AM EDT 08/09/12

Here’s a Satellite view of the Tropical Wave coming off the coast of Africa as of 9 AM EDT 08/09/12.

Tropical Storm #Ernesto has his eye on the Yucatan Peninsula

Once again like yesterday morning Ernesto is showing a build up of convection around his core. Currently Ernesto is still headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula, located at 17.8 North 84.4 West and has sustained winds of 65 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West-Northwest at 13 MPH. The central Pressure is 989 MB or 29.20 inches. Ernesto is about 180 miles Northeast of Isla Roatan Honduras and 250 miles East of Belize City. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center mostly to the Northeast and East of the center.

Ernesto is still expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane during the day today before making his first landfall late tonight or early Wednesday morning on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around Belize and Quintana Roo. At this time, the strength of Ernesto at landfall is still in question as well as the exact time of landfall. Land fall should occur as mentioned Late tonight Tuesday or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Even if Ernesto does not become a Hurricane he will be a Strong Tropical Storm.

Once Ernesto makes landfall he is expected to continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula weakening slightly and emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime late Wednesday evening or night. The timing remains uncertain as well as Ernesto’s strength once back over water due to his interaction with land.

Once back over water in the Bay of Campeche the possibility exists that Ernesto may regain some strength before making his second landfall on the east coast of Mexico likely between Tampico and Veracruz late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Again the timing on this is not set in stone as we have no idea what Ernesto will do, or how long he will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems – Tropical Storm Ernesto

Ernesto WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS OF 8:00 AM EDT 8/7/2012

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL…INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

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On a side note: I’m watching Invest 92L in the Western Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands. At this time this Tropical Wave has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

Tropical Page Updated – Tropical Depression Five

The Tropical Weather Page is updated with information on Tropical Depression Five. You can access it here http://cataulagawx.blogspot.com/p/tropical-weather.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
200 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 51.5W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES