Late week system – Severe Weather undetermined Georgia / Alabama

Posted 3:37 PM EST 1/6/2013

Next system looks to come in Thursday and Friday but should see some rain showers before and after. Weather models continue to disagree on timing and strength of system for the local area but as mentioned, at a minimum we should have some thunder in the area.

The GFS is faster with the system and takes it quicker to the north along with the energy associated with it, while the ECMWF is slower and farther south bringing it into the area on Friday.

gfs_ecmwf_4d_010613_3pmest_multi

Still undetermined at this time if there will be any severe weather with this in our area, but will go ahead and ‘mention again’ the possibility of ‘isolated severe’ due to the environment associated with this system.

I’ll keep watching this and will post again when I know more and closer to weeks end.

Georgia Drought Update – Slight Improvement – January 3 2013

In past weeks a Northeasterly fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has brought much needed rains to the south and southeast, where ripples / shortwaves in the southern jet stream have ejected northward every 3 to 4 days. At this time, the pattern continues with another round of rain this morning in southern areas of both Georgia and Alabama.

Since my last drought report on November 21 2012, some improvement was seen. The main areas to see improvement were in West Central Georgia where Exceptional [D-4] Drought was eliminated and Severe [D2] Drought and D4 pulled back in the vicinity of Athens, Georgia. While improvements where seen, the drought in Georgia remains persistent.

Here’s a graphic showing drought conditions in November 2012 on the left and current conditions on the right.

GA_dm_121120_130101_multi

The Drought outlook for the Southeast region of the United States for January through March shows improvement. At this time I agree with this assessment based on time of year. Late fall through Winter is generally the wet season in the southeast and with lower temperatures combined with lower sun and shorter days, is a time for regeneration of soil moisture.

season_drought

While the outlook is encouraging, the past year [2012] many areas in Georgia ended with a deficit in rainfall. As of December 27 2012, Atlanta saw a deficit of 12.80 inches, Athens 9.73 inches, Columbus 11.48 inches and Macon 13.80 inches.
Here’s the current data showing how much rain is needed to end drought conditions across the United States in 3 months. *Note – The end of a drought is defined by a PHDI value of -0.5. Drought amelioration is achieved when a PHDI value of -2.0 is reached.

phdi-end-2-jan-3mon

Temperatures and Precipitation outlooks for the next 6 through 14 days show probabilities of ‘both’ being ‘above average for the southeast US. You can see this HERE

My next Drought post will be in February but I will be Tweeting weekly updates so follow me there ..

Monday 12/17/12 Update – Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

520 am est 121712

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which ‘will be severe’ begin to fire off. As always, ‘Not everyone will see severe weather. I don’t think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it’s way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be ‘Damaging winds’ associated with the stronger storms. We’ll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here’s the outlook for today issued by the SPC ‘valid at 12z – 7 AM EST’ this morning. [click image to embiggen]

day1otlk_1200_prt_multi panel 515 AM EST 121712

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed.