Heavy Snow – Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106.

1155 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OF CT/NY/NJ – CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW – VALID 071755Z – 072100Z

SUMMARY…A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. OTHERWISE…A BROADER TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 1 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION…METARS CONFIRM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM NEAR NYC TO HARTFORD. THIS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 850-700 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THIS ASCENT WILL WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY DESPITE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA AS THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN COOLS AOB FREEZING. AS SUCH…SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PEAK NEAR 1 IN/HR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z.

Hurricane #Sandy Making Landfall – 10/29/12

Currently – Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.8N 74.4W (30 miles East-southeast of Cape May New Jersey and 40 miles South of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center.

Sandy is still off shore at this time. She is continuing to head to the north-northwest at 28 mph. Sandy is headed for Cape May New Jersey and the Delaware Bay area. Reminder: When we talk about landfall, we are speaking of the center of the storm. Sandy is large and as many of you know, her winds and rains have been felt much of the day. So the center is not that important.

Below shows Storm Radial Velocity measuring wind speed and Base Reflectivity Radar showing rain.

Hurricane #Sandy Landfall 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT | Update 2:00 PM EDT 10/29/12

At 940mb, Sandy is now the strongest hurricane recorded north of North Carolina!

Time of the center making landfall likely 5:00 to 7:00 PM EDT.
Per a tweet at 1:01 PM EDT Today from Dr. Greg Forbes @DrGregForbes from the weather Channel: “Sandy is speeding up, moving northwest at 25-30 mph. It could make landfall south NJ around 5PM. Hurricane winds approaching NJ, south NY.”
*Note: At the source link, timestamp is wrong. source: https://twitter.com/DrGregForbes/status/262962284517801984

Winds continue to increase with Sandy. Estimated wind speed at landfall or before the center moves inland are near 100 mph. Wind gusts of 50-60+ mph are being reported along the NJ, NY, MA coasts and gusting to 66 mph at JFK Airport in NYC. Numerous power outages are coming in from various news sources with reports of 150,000 without power. This will continue and worsen as Sandy nears landfall south of Atlantic City.

Currently – Winds: 90 mph | Pressure 940 mb | Location: 38.3N 73.1W (175 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 110 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving Northwest at 28 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. A tropical Storm ‘Warning’ is in effect for North of surf City to Duck North Carolina and Pamlico / Albemarle sounds. Please Check previous posts Below for more information on expected impacts.