Climate Change – Global Warming: Open Letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

They’re on to me!

OPEN CLIMATE LETTER TO UN SECRETARY-GENERAL: Current scientific knowledge does not substantiate Ban Ki-Moon assertions on weather and climate, say 125-plus scientists.

Policy actions that aim to reduce CO2 emissions are unlikely to influence future climate. Policies need to focus on preparation for, and adaptation to, all dangerous climatic events, however caused

Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations

H.E. Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary-General, United Nations

First Avenue and East 44^th Street, New York, New York, U.S.A.

November 29, 2012

Mr. Secretary-General:

On November 9 this year you told the General Assembly: “Extreme weather due to climate change is the new normal … Our challenge remains, clear and urgent: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to strengthen adaptation to … even larger climate shocks … and to reach a legally binding climate agreement by 2015 … This should be one of the main lessons of Hurricane Sandy.”

On November 13 you said at Yale: “The science is clear; we should waste no more time on that debate.”

The following day, in Al Gore’s “Dirty Weather” Webcast, you spoke of “more severe storms, harsher droughts, greater floods”, concluding: “Two weeks ago, Hurricane Sandy struck the eastern seaboard of the United States. A nation saw the reality of climate change. The recovery will cost tens of billions of dollars. The cost of inaction will be even higher. We must reduce our dependence on carbon emissions.”

We the undersigned, qualified in climate-related matters, wish to state that current scientific knowledge does not substantiate your assertions.

The U.K. Met Office recently released data showing that there has been no statistically significant global warming for almost 16 years. During this period, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations rose by nearly 9% to now constitute 0.039% of the atmosphere. Global warming that has not occurred cannot have caused the extreme weather of the past few years. Whether, when and how atmospheric warming will resume is unknown. The science is unclear. Some scientists point out that near-term natural cooling, linked to variations in solar output, is also a distinct possibility.

The “even larger climate shocks” you have mentioned would be worse if the world cooled than if it warmed. Climate changes naturally all the time, sometimes dramatically. The hypothesis that our emissions of CO₂ have caused, or will cause, dangerous warming is not supported by the evidence.

The incidence and severity of extreme weather has not increased. There is little evidence that dangerous weather-related events will occur more often in the future. The U.N.’s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in its Special Report on Extreme Weather (2012) that there is “an absence of an attributable climate change signal” in trends in extreme weather losses to date. The funds currently dedicated to trying to stop extreme weather should therefore be diverted to strengthening our infrastructure so as to be able to withstand these inevitable, natural events, and to helping communities rebuild after natural catastrophes such as tropical storm Sandy.

There is no sound reason for the costly, restrictive public policy decisions proposed at the U.N. climate conference in Qatar. Rigorous analysis of unbiased observational data does not support the projections of future global warming predicted by computer models now proven to exaggerate warming and its effects.

The NOAA “State of the Climate in 2008” report asserted that 15 years or more without any statistically-significant warming would indicate a discrepancy between observation and prediction. Sixteen years without warming have therefore now proven that the models are wrong by their creators’ own criterion.

Based upon these considerations, we ask that you desist from exploiting the misery of the families of those who lost their lives or properties in tropical storm Sandy by making unsupportable claims that human influences caused that storm. They did not. We also ask that you acknowledge that policy actions by the U.N., or by the signatory nations to the UNFCCC, that aim to reduce CO₂ emissions are unlikely to exercise any significant influence on future climate. Climate policies therefore need to focus on preparation for, and adaptation to, all dangerous climatic events however caused.

Signed by:

Georgia Drought Update: Getting Worse – July 30 2012

In my last drought update – Georgia Drought Update: No Improvement – July 12 2012 the title said it all, ‘No Improvement’. That being said, this months update should come as no surprise, the drought in Georgia is getting worse.

While many areas in Georgia have seen afternoon and evening summer type pulse showers and thunderstorms, they have done little to overcome the recent heat and soil moisture evaporation. Even here in Cataula where I’m running above average in precipitation for the month of July, the creek on the back 40 remains dry. At my location in Cataula, GA. I’ve received 50.63 inches in the last 365 days, And 6.79 inches of rain for July 2012 as of July 29^th, both above average for my area.

Here are the stats from around the state.. Columbus represents my area as I am Just north.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 365 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA        34.52         49.71      -15.19         69%
ATHENS         35.68         46.35      -10.67         77%
COLUMBUS       38.29         46.77       -8.48         82%
MACON          32.01         45.68      -13.67         70%

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
115 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

LONG TERM DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA.

THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND EXPANDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS IN A NEUTRAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SUMMER SEASON. THE DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE GRADUALLY WORSEN IN AREAS OF BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. SOME VEGETATION HAS GONE DORMANT DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND THE INCREASE IN EVAPORATION RATES. MOST SMALL LAKE…POND…STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SOME RECORD LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A FEW DAYS OF RAIN BROUGHT SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRED OVER MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF NORTH GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS. THE DRIEST AREA WITH LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAIN WAS FROM MACON TO SPARTA TO LYONS TO ABBEVILLE.

THE RAINFALL DEFICITS AND SOIL MOISTURE IMPROVED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED 2 INCHES OR MORE DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. HOWEVER…THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA INCREASED TO THE NORTH. THE AREA IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR ROME THROUGH CANTON AND GAINESVILLE TO TOCCOA.

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Here’s a look at the drought in Georgia. July 10 on the left which was the focus of my last drought report [ linked above ] and the current drought report in Georgia as of July 24 2012. As you can see, drought conditions in Georgia have worsened since the last report as explained in the above report.

While were on Georgia drought, here are the current Lake levels for some of the more important lakes in Georgia as of 942 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012

LAKE        SUMMER POOL  CURRENT LEVEL    DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET
ALLATOONA       840          836.96         -3.04
CARTERS        1074         1073.79         -0.21
HARTWELL        660          649.68        -10.32
LANIER         1071         1063.27         -7.73
THURMOND        330          319.65        -10.35
WEST POINT      635          628.59         -6.41

Here are the forecast Lake levels for the next 4 weeks. All below summer full pool.

Here’s another image showing current drought conditions in Georgia as of July 24 2012.

Here are drought conditions across the Southeast. Current on the right.

Here’s a look at drought severity across the entire United States as of July 24 2012 on the right and 2 weeks ago in the left. Only 19.92 percent of the country is drought free.

I’m still waiting on the tropics to become active again. While the Hurricane season saw an early start with named storms in both May and June, it looks like July 2012 will go by without a named storm for the first time since 2009. We can still hope a tropical system will bring drought relief in August to Georgia and other areas of the southeast.

For all information Current to 2007 on Drought in Georgia, See The Drought Files.

Georgia Drought Update: No Improvement – July 12 2012

Areas of central Georgia to southwest Georgia are still enduring the highest level of drought ‘Exceptional Drought’, which now covers 21.73 percent of the state as of July 10 2012. On June 26 2012 this area was 19.98 percent. Not far behind in this general area is a large area of ‘Extreme Drought’ which now covers 38.44 percent of the state as of July 10 2012. On June 26 2012 this area was 31.72 percent. The state of Georgia as a whole is experiencing drought except for the southeastern most part. 12.29 percent of Georgia is drought free as of July 10 2012, slightly worse than on June 26 2012 which showed 13.91 percent of Georgia drought free.

While some areas in Georgia have seen rain, others have not. Compounding the lack of rainfall during the past couple of weeks was the heatwave that swept through much of the south.

Here are the current drought conditions in Georgia. June 26 on the left and July 10 on the right.

Here’s a look at drought conditions throughout the southeast. June 26 on the left and July 10 on the right.

Here’s a panel showing Departure from Normal Precipitation Top Left, Normal Precipitation Top Right, and Observed Precipitation Bottom.

Here is the current Drought severity Index for the entire U.S. on the left and the amount of Precipitation needed to bring drought conditions to near normal on the right. Much of the country is experiencing drought conditions at this time, but this is not something we have not seen before in past years.

Here is the latest Drought Outlook for the U.S., It’s not looking good during the next few months.

For us in the south and southeast we have the potential for some drought relief much like Florida saw recently. We can hope for a tropical system to move through the area in the coming months.

For all information Current to 2007 on Drought in Georgia, See The Drought Files.