Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show….

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I’ll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe ‘damaging winds’ are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, ‘not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes’.

I’ll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I’ll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

day2otlk_multi panel 012913

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter
before and when the storms strike. I’m there all the time and don’t always have time to update the blog here 😉

2012 Weather Year in Review – Georgia and the Southeast

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 – We started the year on a dry note – Georgia Drought Update – January 5 2012

February 14 2012 – Winter Mischief – Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia – Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 – Severe Weather – MAP – March 2 2012 Storm Reports – NWS Storm / Tornado survey’s

April 27 2012 – Earthquake in Georgia – Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 – We all make mistakes – Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 – Tropical Storm Debby Dance – Tropical Storm Debby – Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 – How hot is it ? – Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 – Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 – Still Dry – Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 – Hurricane Sandy – Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 – Last post of the year on Georgia Drought – No Improvement – Georgia Drought Update – I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 – Forecast for Christmas Storms – Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012 – While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a ‘damaging wind event’. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you’ve followed me long enough you know I won’t / don’t sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here’s the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office’s around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Christmas 2012 Storm Event

Here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

SPC multi panel for 122512 as of 122312

I’ll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.

Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50’s to mid 60’s and approaching the 70’s along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed.

If you’re local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:50 PM EST 12/23/2012