#Snow Georgia / Alabama Saturday February 16 2013 #gawx #alwx

As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.

As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.

multi panel for Saturday Feb 16 2013_edit

Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn’t much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.

Here’s a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t’s for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.

KCSG 7 am est 021613

KMCN 9 am est 021613

KAHN 10 am est 021613

KATL 5 am est 021613

I first mentiond this on Facebook, on February 8 2013 and on this blog February 11 2013 here Possible Snow for Georgia and Alabama February 16/17

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Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 – #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I’ve seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. ‘Right now’ it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here’s what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don’t care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

bufkitprofile

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there’s not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

bufkitoverview

GFS_3_2013021118_F132_SNOWIN_SURFACE
 

Tracking Southeast Storms March 2/3 2012 – Latest Graphics

For the remainder of the night, Follow me on Twitter @CataulaGaWX and Facebook at Cataula Ga Weather.

Automatic posting of Watches and Warnings are posted at my other Twitter and Facebook accounts – Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 7:30 PM EST today, valid through Saturday morning.

Changes in these graphics from this evening at 3:41 PM EST HIGHLIGHTED HIGH RISK AREA for SOUTHERN INDIANA…SOUTHWEST OHIO…A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY…AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE..HAS BEEN REMOVED..Other changes in COVERAGE areas of the Moderate, and Slight risk are indicated. These coverage areas are likely to continue shifting EAST in future Updates.

Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms – Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms – Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms – Red Area, HIGH RISK area likely to see TORNADOES – Fuchsia Area.

Tornado Outlook: Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. – 2% risk of a Tornado – Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado – Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado – Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado – Red Area. Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds – Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds – Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds – Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds – Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail – Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail – Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail – Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail – Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Just for show…