Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 – #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I’ve seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. ‘Right now’ it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here’s what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don’t care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

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The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there’s not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

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Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show….

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I’ll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe ‘damaging winds’ are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, ‘not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes’.

I’ll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I’ll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

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As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter
before and when the storms strike. I’m there all the time and don’t always have time to update the blog here 😉

2012 Weather Year in Review – Georgia and the Southeast

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 – We started the year on a dry note – Georgia Drought Update – January 5 2012

February 14 2012 – Winter Mischief – Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia – Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 – Severe Weather – MAP – March 2 2012 Storm Reports – NWS Storm / Tornado survey’s

April 27 2012 – Earthquake in Georgia – Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 – We all make mistakes – Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 – Tropical Storm Debby Dance – Tropical Storm Debby – Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 – How hot is it ? – Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 – Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 – Still Dry – Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 – Hurricane Sandy – Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 – Last post of the year on Georgia Drought – No Improvement – Georgia Drought Update – I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 – Forecast for Christmas Storms – Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012 – While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.