Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show….

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I’ll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe ‘damaging winds’ are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, ‘not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes’.

I’ll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I’ll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter Follow @Cataulagawx
before and when the storms strike. I’m there all the time and don’t always have time to update the blog here 😉

Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a ‘damaging wind event’. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you’ve followed me long enough you know I won’t / don’t sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here’s the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office’s around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

I’ll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.

Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50’s to mid 60’s and approaching the 70’s along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

If you’re local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:50 PM EST 12/23/2012

April 27 2011 – Before, During, and after Tornado Outbreak in Georgia and Alabama

Like others, I have a lot of stuff in files from April 27 2011. Here is what I have on this blog beginning on April 22 2011 and ending on May 2 2011. These are excerpts from the linked post where more information and images can be found.

Friday, April 22, 2011 – My first post hinting of what was to come – Easter and beyond –

Next week there looks to be another round of storms by Wednesday. Haven’t narrowed down the specifics yet as to whether they will be severe or not.
Current Bufkit soundings hint at the possibility Wednesday evening and night, with high cape helicity values and shear. At this time it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be.

We’ll know more as time goes as that system is still 5 days away.

Saturday, April 23, 2011 – Midwest possible flooding next week –

I’ll be watching this system for impacts on the local area as it develops. It’s still looking to be a strong one.

Sunday, April 24, 2011 – Severe weather probable Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 –

Models still indicating probable severe weather heading for our area Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. The exact timing is still in question, so keep abreast of the situation.

Best guess at this time:

Latest run of the GFS shows the brunt of activity around 11 pm ET Wednesday, indicating strong possible damaging wind and potential hail as main features. Cape and helicity values are highest at this time with cape:1338, Helicity:418, a Cins of 8, and an energy helicity index of 3.495525. Due to these factors, and a looping hodograph, a rogue tornado at this time can not be ruled out entirely with the passage of this system, which will spawn supercells ahead of the approaching cold front.

Monday, April 25, 2011 – Severe storms still on track for Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 –

This past Friday I mentioned “it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be”, this still appears to be the case for the local area. However … this does not mean the local area will not see strong to severe storms. Models are still showing this system has the potential of damaging winds, hail, and the capability of spawning a tornado.

None of this is set in stone as we are still 48+ hours away from the occurrence of this event. We are right on the fringe as models show areas to the south of the local area having a more stable environment as the front moves closer to the area. This does not mean those areas wont see strong storms. So don’t let your guard down.

One thing the models [that I use] have done as they get a better handle on this system, they show it coming through the local area earlier that previously forecast. It’s looking more likely the worst of the weather will move through the local area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, clearing the area early Thursday morning. Thats not to say we wont be seeing any severe weather before the front pushes through, or after with the unstable atmosphere around capable of some regeneration.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011 – Entering Storm Mode for April 27 – Possible Southeast Tornado Outbreak –

At this time it still appears the worst of the storms will stay to our north, as mentioned on Monday. That doesn’t mean we are out of the woods. Hopefully we will not see any tornadoes in the local area, but we all know all it takes is strong wind upwards of 50mph to down trees and power lines causing damage to structures. You may know them as straight line winds, or down burst winds.

Our biggest concern tomorrow will be the development of ‘supercells’ capable of producing tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. We will also have to watch for ‘squall line’ development ahead of the cold front the closer it gets to the area. A ‘squall line’ is also capable of spinning up a tornado, along with severe thunderstorms containing heavy precipitation, hail, frequent lightning, and strong straight line winds.

I can not stress the severity of this situation or adequately without fearmongering.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011 – Update 1 – Live Blogging: Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak 4/27/2011

Original Post – Jumping right in … Already reports this morning out of North Georgia of Widespread Wind Damage, trees down as well as power lines and damage to structures. The worst report at this time:

8:41 AM – “DADE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN TRENTON. DADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HAD PART OF ITS ROOF LIFTED UP.”

Tornadoes have not been confirmed yet in any of the reports, including the above. We’ll know for sure in a day or two.

The storms that caused the damage in North Georgia is the first round. The Second round will come later today and impact a larger portion of Georgia through tomorrow morning, the local area included. The national weather service has revised the time in which these storms will arrive and depart areas of Georgia.

++++++++

Update: 6:06 PM 4/27/2011 – Just a quick update showing current Weather Warnings, Watches and radar. All of this is moving east and will be affecting the local area later this evening and through the early morning hours.

Severe Weather Warnings as of 5:58 PM EDT

Severe Weather Warnings and Radar as of 5:58 PM EDT

Thursday, April 28, 2011 – at 5:59 PM EDT – Severe Weather Outbreak April 27-28 2011 Aftermath –

First, let me apologize for not ‘live blogging’ the event. I became overwhelmed by the destruction and death that occurred in Alabama, as the storms headed for Georgia.

Here in the local area, we were not left untouched by the powerful storm system that moved across the nation causing death and destruction. My home county [ Harris Co Georgia ] had what is yet to be confirmed as a tornado move through. Many areas in Georgia felt the wrath, and many on the east coast are still feeling it.

This tornado outbreak will go down in history as one of few that has claimed so my lives. As it stands at this time, it may be ranked as the second most destructive in the past 50 years. In the coming days, it may find itself being placed as number one ahead of the Super Outbreak of 1974.

I’ll be gathering a few videos and links of damage around the local area in the coming day, and post them here on the blog.

For now, heres a couple radar screen captures showing the storms and tornadoes as they headed for, impacted, and left the area.

Preliminary Tornado Tracks in Georgia

Thursday, April 28, 2011 – at 10:06 PM EDT – Tornado Death toll stands at 292; likely to rise –

204 fatalities in Alabama

via: ema.alabama.gov – this is a pdf file

FROM THE OFFICE OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, April 28, 2011, 8pm

Number of weather related fatalities climbs

Clanton – The Alabama Emergency Management Agency has confirmed 204 fatalities in Alabama from
the tornadoes and severe weather yesterday. The fatalities are as follows (listed by county):

Friday, April 29, 2011 – at 3:15 PM EDT – Storm Surveys: Georgia Tornado Outbreak April 27-28 2011 –

Here are a images from the completed Georgia storm surveys from the National Weather Service.
All of this information can be found here- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20110427_svrstorms, as well as more text &images, and future updates from storm surveys still being conducted.

Friday, April 29, 2011 – at 10:06 PM EDT – April 27 tornado outbreak storm rotation tracks image –

National Severe Storms Laboratory has released an image documenting the rotation tracks of the devastating tornadoes on April 27.

Saturday, April 30, 2011 – EF2 Tornado Harris County Georgia April 27 Confirmed –

A National Weather Service survey team determined that an EF2 tornado with winds of 130 MPH crossed Harris, Meriwether, and Upson Counties Wednesday night.

Path of Tornado

Sunday, May 1, 2011 – Social Media and Severe Weather –

This is one example of why I use this blog, twitter and Facebook[here & here] for reporting / relaying information on extreme weather.

Monday, May 2, 2011 – Before After Tuscaloosa, Ala. Tornado Aerial Imagery –

These are reduced images available via ZIP File from noaanews.noaa.gov in Hi Res. There is also a PDF available at the aforementioned link with Low-Res images.