Tropical storm Isaac is still expected to become a minimal hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf coast in the Louisiana Mississippi Alabama area.
Right now Isaac is still a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph and continues moving to the Northwest at 12 mph. At 4:00 am CDT Isaac was about 125 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and about 205 miles south-southeast of Biloxi Mississippi. Isaac is expected to strengthen in the hours before landfall and will as mentioned be a minimal hurricane with anticipated winds of maximum 85 mph, there will be higher gusts. There will likely be a few Tornadoes as well.
The Eyewall of Isaac this morning..
Isaac is large and his winds will be felt before the center makes landfall.tropical storm force winds extend outward of 205 miles for Isaac’s center. Heavy rains and high storm surge will also become problematic causing flooding with storm surge of:
6-12 FEET in Southeast Louisiana and Mississippi 4-8 FEET in Alabama 3-6 FEET in South Central Louisiana 3-6 FEET in Florida Panhandle 1-3 FEET in Florida west coast including Apalachee Bay
Rainfall Potential for the area:
You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics.. and more on the Tropical Weather Page here ..
Isaac now has winds of 65 MPH with higher gusts and is now moving West-Northwest at 20 MPH. Currently located at 23.5 North 80.0 West or about 135 Miles East-Southeast of Key West Florida and 155 Miles East of Havana Cuba. Central pressure now 995 MB. Isaac is expected to be or Near Hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Keys sometime today. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward 205 miles from Isaac’s Center.
Isaac will impact the Florida Keys in the near term and is expected to strengthen as he continues tracking northwest into the warmer waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The current track of Isaac has shifted to the West at this time from previously and will shift [flip flop] until landfall which is still uncertain somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Once well into the Gulf of Mexico, computer models will get a better handle on Isaac and withing the next day or so we should will have a much better idea of where he is headed.
Radar from Key West Florida 10:16 AM EDT
* A Hurricane ‘Warning’ is in effect for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortunas, the West coast of FL from Bonita Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, Florida Bay and the Andros Islands in the Bahamas. * A Hurricane ‘Watch’ is in effect for the FL East coast from Golden Beach Southward to Ocean Reef, the Mouth of the Mississippi River ‘NOT INCLUDING METRO NEW ORLEANS’ to Indian Pass Florida.
You can find all the information on Isaac including Graphics on the Tropical Weather Page here .. and more ..
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Seems I was right after looking over some data this morning. Also while reviewing data this morning, he appears to continue jogging in this direction. So what is causing this ? A couple of things. We have a Bermuda High in the Atlantic rotating clockwise pushing from the Northeast to the southwest which is to the Northeast of Isaac, and a tropical upper tropospheric trough [Tutt] rotating counter clockwise that was to the west of Isaac. In this case the Bermuda high is stronger and helping to steer Isaac West-Southwest. You can see this on the Image below, a surface chart showing these features which I’ve highlighted for you.
What this means if it continues is, Isaac will likely for the short term delay interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba to his west and have time to grow and become stronger while continuing too transverse the warm waters of the Caribbean. Should this occur Isaac stands a greater chance of surviving and emerging a bit stronger than he would, once he does cross those Islands.
As for Isaac .. he is currently farther south situated at 15.3North 64.0West and is weaker with winds of 40mph this morning. He is moving to the West at 12mph and has a central pressure of 1004mb.
Computer models are all over the place at last look as they try to get a handle on him. So … at this time the future track of Isaac remains uncertain for this reason and some influence from what was mentioned above. Florida, the Eastern Gulf coast and the Southeast Atlantic coastal states should continue to monitor Isaac. I think by Friday I should have a better idea where Isaac is going as far as exact location.
Several National Weather Service offices across the southeast will be releasing radiosondes [weather balloons] into the atmosphere every six hours beginning Friday to get a better handle on the trough over the southeast and the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. Until they and I have a better handle on things, I’m sticking with my previous thoughts of this storm going up the spine of Florida or there about and heading to the East Northeast. I am not one to chase computer models when they shift the track every run.