Hurricane #Sandy – #Wind #StormSurge #Rain #Snow 8:00 AM EDT 10/29/12

[Cross posted from Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone, time is short, info current as of 8 AM EDT]

Good morning folks. We hope you are as prepared as you can be. If not, you should be finalizing your preparations as time is running out for you to do so. Heed all warnings and advisories issued by your local weather service and media outlets. Sandy is now expected to be a ‘strong Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 90 mph at landfall’. At this time we have determined Sandy [the center] will make landfall in the area of northern Delaware and Southern New Jersey, in the Delaware Bay early Tuesday morning. When Sandy goes Post-Tropical later today, the Foot’s Forecast: Severe Storm Center will be issuing updates and they will be shared with Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone.

Currently – Winds: 85 mph | Pressure 946 mb | Location: 36.8N 71.1W (310 miles South-southeast of New York City New York and 265 miles Southeast of Atlantic City New Jersey) | Moving North-Northwest at 20 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 485 miles and Hurricane force winds out 175 miles from the center. Sandy will be felt long before the center makes landfall. A tropical Storm ‘Warning’ is in effect from Cape Fear to duck North Carolina, Pamlico / Albemarle sounds and Bermuda.

Hurricane force winds are expected between Chincoteague Virgina and Chatam Massachusetts including the Tidal Potomas from Cobb Island to Smith Point, the Middle and Upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, The coasts of the Northern Delmarva Peninsula, New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Tropical storm Force winds are expected North of Chatam to the Merrimack River Massachusetts, the Lower Chesapeake Bay, South of Chincoteague to Duck North Carolina.

*Threats*

Winds in and around the area ‘could be stronger’ or weaker. It all depends on how strong Sandy Gets.: Winds as strong as but not limited to ‘Hurricane Force [74 mph to 95 mph / Category 1]’ strength will reach the Mid-Atlantic states including New York City and Long Island ‘later today’. Elevated Winds will likely be ‘Stronger’ than those near ground level. These stronger winds will affect the ‘upper floors of high rise buildings’. Stay away from the windows if you live on upper floors. Winds may also be stronger due to the funneling effect caused by buildings and other structures. Tropical Storm force winds [39 mph to 73 mph] and or Gale force Winds [39 mph to 54 mph] are already being felt from North Carolina ‘northward’ to Long Island. These winds are expected to spread to other areas of the Mid-Atlantic coast, New York City and Southern New England later this morning and today.

Storm Surge measured ‘above ground’ – It ‘could be more’ or less. It all depends on the timing [high tide/low tide] and how strong Sandy Gets. :
Long Island Sound / Paritan Bay / New York Harbor – 6 to 11 Feet
Fron Ocean City Maryland to the Connecticut / Rhode Island Border – 4 to 8 Feet
North Carolina North of Surf City including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds – 4 to 6 Feet
Connecticut / Rhode Island Border to the South Shore of Cape Cod including Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay – 3 to 6 Feet
Southeast Virginia and Delmarva including the Lower Chesapeake Bay – 2 to 4 Feet
Cape Cod to the Massachusetts / New Hampshire border including Cap Cod Bay – 2 to 4 Feet
Upper and Middle Chesapeake Bay – 1 to 3 Feet
Massachusetts / New Hampshire border to the United States / Canadian Border – 1 to 3 Feet

Rainfall from the coast further inland will likely cause flooding in low areas and flash flooding in other areas. Be aware of this as there is low confidence in forecasting ‘flash floods’.: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected in and around Northeastern North Carolina with isolated amounts of 8 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected in the Mid-Atlantic States and the Delmarva Peninsula with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the Southern Tier of New York State Northeastward through New England with isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.

Snowfall: Areas of Eastern West Virginia , Western Virginia, Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky and Eastern Tennessee are currently under a Blizzard Warning and or Winter Storm Warning. In the ‘blizzard warned areas’ Heavy snow with white-out conditions can be expected with deep drifts and dangerous wind chill likely. In the ‘winter storm warned areas’ Heavy wet snow, heavy freezing rain and or heavy sleet can be expected.
Snow amounts expected range from ‘2 to 3 Feet’ in the mountains of West Virginia with locally higher amounts possible ‘today through Wednesday’. Snow amounts expected range from ‘1 to 2 Feet’ in the mountains of Southwestern Virginia to the Kentucky Border and ’12 to 18 inches’ in the mountains near the North Carolina / Tennessee border and in the mountains of Western Maryland.

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Hurricane #Sandy – State of Emergency for many

The following states / areas have issued a State of Emergency: Washington D.C., Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. If you know of others at this time, please let me know in the comments. Thanks ~ Ed

Here’s the latest on Sandy – Winds: 75 mph | Pressure 958 mb | Location: 29.0N 76.0W (190 miles North0Northeast of Great Abaco Island, 355 miles Southeast of Charleston South Carolina) | Moving NNE at 9 mph. Currently Tropical storm force winds extend out 450 miles and Hurricane winds out 105 miles from the center.

Turing our focus to areas that will be impacted in the short term by Sandy: For eastern North Carolina including the coastal areas we can expect Moderate coastal flooding tonight into Monday. Storm Surge combined with rainfall estimates at this time may cause inundation from 1 to 5 feet ‘above ground’ North of Cape Hatteras Ocean side, Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras Ocean side, North of Surf City to Cape Lookout. On the sound side 3 to 5 feet ‘above ground’ may be seen along the Southern Pamlico Sound and Lower Neuse ‘Today and Sunday’ and anywhere on the sound side of the Outer Banks ‘Sunday into Monday’ including Roanoke Island. There is some uncertainty in the exact areas that will see this but it remains possible across a large area.

Winds will also be strong and gusty ‘tonight into Monday’ along Coastal areas sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts 50 to 65 mph. Further inland winds will be 25 to 35 mph with gust 40 to 50 mph. Now is a great time to secure loose belongings that are outside if you haven’t already done so. Rip currents will be dangerous with breaking waves 8 to 12 feet ‘today’ and will cause significant beach erosion. Please stay out of the ocean.


 

Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information as this storm unfolds at Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone .

Tropical Storm #Sandy .. What’s in a name ?

Don’t focus on what Sandy will be called in days ahead. Whether a Hurricane, Tropical Storm, Post tropical or extra tropical. She’s going to cause problems for many regardless of her name and characteristics.

Depending on the exact track Sandy takes along the east coast, ‘at this time’ areas in North Carolina Today and spreading northward along the Mid Atlantic coast Tonight through Monday can expect rainfall of 1-4 inches with higher totals approaching 8 inches possible in some areas closer to the coast. Minor coastal flooding is expected in low lying areas with some beach erosion due to high surf up to 6 or 7 feet and Gusty winds between 30-40 mph with gusts approaching 60-70 mph possible. Flooding and loss of electricity is also possible inland.

Tropical Storm Sandy Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities

Tropical Storm Sandy – Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities 120 hours as of October 27 2012

At this time here’s what you can expect ‘before and during landfall’ and ‘inland after landfall’ .. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm force winds for many hours possibly longer. Heavy rains of 8 to 12 inches along the coast and inland causing flooding issues for many. Coastal flooding and erosion for hours due to hurricane/tropical storm force winds and ‘tidal surge’. Power outages widespread, Trees down, Roads closed due to debris / flooding and wash out, Airports and other transportation halted. Basic services shut down for days, a week or longer in some areas. To add to all that as if that’s not enough, major snowfall measured in ‘Feet’ is likely for some areas west of the system in areas of Western Virginia, West Virginia, Southwest Pennsylvania. In surrounding areas of Ohio, Northeast Kentucky back into Indiana snowfall is likely as well as to the north of the system in areas of Southern New York State, East and Northeastern areas of Pennsylvania. There may be some icing issues too.

Tropical Storm Sandy Rainfall Potential

Rainfall Potential Day 1-5


 
Stay with us for timely updates and the latest information at Foot’s Forecast: The Tropical Zone as this storm unfolds. You can head over to Foot’s Forecast [Website] for more insight and see what goes into understanding a storm like this.