Tropical Disturbance possible Gulf of Mexico – Katia in the Atlantic – Computer Models

Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. –

Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south –

The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas –

The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf –

The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.

These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.

Tropics Update August 29 2011 – Irene – Jose – TD12[Katia]

Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.

Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it’s tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.

Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn’t form in the near.

Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 AM EDT Monday August 29 2011 –

TD12 5amedt August 29 2011

Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia –

TD12 2amedt August 29 2011

TD12 636amedt August 29 2011

It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia ‘may’ impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I’ll be watching.