Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.
Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.
Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.
A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.
Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.
Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.