Southeast Strong to Severe Storms Wednesday/Thursday 2/29/-3/01/2012

Not changing from my earlier thinking on the frontal passage today and tonight. See previous post HERE.

Still looking like the best chance of seeing severe storms will be from Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia Northward and into the Carolinas later this evening, tonight.

Areas south of Central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia will mainly see Thunderstorms, however, a strong to possible severe storm can not be ruled out at this time. The biggest threat with any of the stronger storms will be damaging winds.

A higher risk exists in the Northern most areas of these states into the Tennessee Valley, Western North Carolina and possibly the Upstate of South Carolina later tonight early Thursday morning. A tornado or two in these areas are possible as we have seen earlier today to the west and north.

Here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued 3 PM EST today, valid through tonight outlining the areas at risk mentioned above.

Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.

Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Hatched Area / Yellow/Red : 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Wind Outlook Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area.

Hail Outlook Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area.

Watching Wednesday 2/29/2012 storm potential

Not much change in my thinking from yesterday on the mid week system. Still looking like the better chances of seeing severe storms will remain to the north of the local area in Georgia and Alabama, Wednesday afternoon early evening. We may see some stronger storms late Wednesday evening through early morning hours Thursday. This is yet to be determined as I’m not sure at this time where the approaching front will stall in the area, but it is possible as the main area shifts to the east. Depending on where the front stalls, it is not out of the question that showers and a possible strong storm will be around the area Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70’s approaching the 80’s, with dew points in the low to mid 60’s for Wednesday and Thursday. A moist environment to say the least providing fuel for storm development.

The best timing for potential strong to severe storms will be from around 5:00 PM EST Wednesday through about Midnight. That’s not to say we won’t hear some rumbles of thunder earlier and the possibility of a stronger storm throughout the day Wednesday. The main threat at this time appears to be strong damaging winds; however, a quick spin up tornado can’t be ruled out in the southeast.

Slight Risk area: The local area remains south of the ‘slight risk’ area.
As mentioned above, there is the possibility of strong storms to hang around Thursday as the main area shifts to the east. This is depicted in the below graphic from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC]. As you can see the ‘slight risk’ area [ shaded yellow ] dogleg from Central Georgia southwest through Alabama into Mississippi. This graphic is valid 5 AM Wednesday thru 5 AM Thursday.

Probabilistic Outlook area: The local area is now on the southern most fringe of the 5% probability of seeing severe storms, with the northern areas included in a 15% area at this time. A higher 30% risk area covers much of north Alabama, Mississippi and a small area in northwest Georgia, extending well north into Tennessee and the upper Ohio valley. This area will likely shift east as well as north to extend into the Carolinas early Thursday.

Looking ahead: Still ironing out the specifics for the Weekend system. This will become clearer once the mid-week system moves through. At this time I still see the potential for strong to severe storms. How strong, when and where will greatly depend on what the mid-week system does.

Check back for updates !

Mid week storminess – Wednesday 2/29/2012

Still need to remain on guard Wednesday as a cold front associated with a low pressure far to our north swings through, bringing with it the best chance to see anything severe. I’m not looking for anything severe in the local area, only thundershowers / thunderstorms as mentioned Sunday 02/26/2012. The higher probability will remain in North Georgia and Alabama.

My earlier thinking on this frontal passage is reflected on today’s Graphics form the Storm Prediction Center [SPC]

Slight Risk area: The local area remains south of the ‘slight risk’ area as well as much of south Georgia and Alabama.

Probabilistic Outlook area: This is why you should still remain aware of changing weather with this system. While a 15% chance of seeing possible severe weather is just to our north, the local area and much of central Georgia and Alabama is included in a 5% risk area. Should anything come from this it will be with the frontal passage [cold front] as it pushes through.

Looking ahead … there still appears at this time for a stronger system to push through the area and much of the southeast Friday / Saturday. Much remains to be sifted through as far as actual strength and timing. We need to get the system mentioned above through the area before we can really get specific about the weeks end potential. So check back for updates!

As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I’ll continue to watch and will be posting Updates here and on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.