Once again like yesterday morning Ernesto is showing a build up of convection around his core. Currently Ernesto is still headed toward the Yucatan Peninsula, located at 17.8 North 84.4 West and has sustained winds of 65 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West-Northwest at 13 MPH. The central Pressure is 989 MB or 29.20 inches. Ernesto is about 180 miles Northeast of Isla Roatan Honduras and 250 miles East of Belize City. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center mostly to the Northeast and East of the center.
Ernesto is still expected to become a Category 1 Hurricane during the day today before making his first landfall late tonight or early Wednesday morning on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula around Belize and Quintana Roo. At this time, the strength of Ernesto at landfall is still in question as well as the exact time of landfall. Land fall should occur as mentioned Late tonight Tuesday or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Even if Ernesto does not become a Hurricane he will be a Strong Tropical Storm.
Once Ernesto makes landfall he is expected to continue moving across the Yucatan Peninsula weakening slightly and emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime late Wednesday evening or night. The timing remains uncertain as well as Ernesto’s strength once back over water due to his interaction with land.
Once back over water in the Bay of Campeche the possibility exists that Ernesto may regain some strength before making his second landfall on the east coast of Mexico likely between Tampico and Veracruz late Thursday night or early Friday morning. Again the timing on this is not set in stone as we have no idea what Ernesto will do, or how long he will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.
Active Tropical Systems – Tropical Storm Ernesto
Ernesto WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS OF 8:00 AM EDT 8/7/2012
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL…INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
On a side note: I’m watching Invest 92L in the Western Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands. At this time this Tropical Wave has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.