Tropical Storm #Patty / Invest #98L

Hurricane Hunters are on the way to have a look at Patty. They’ll continue southeast and have a look at Invest98L this afternoon.

Patty is located about 275 miles to the East-Northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.5North 72.0West with winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1006. Patty is drifting to the northeast at about 2 mph and this is expected to continue today with a turn toward the southwest expected on Saturday. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward about 70 miles form the center. There are ‘no tropical storm watches or warnings’. Patty should begin to weaken and she should become a remnant low over the weekend. As mentioned in earlier post, Patty will be short lived.

Invest98L should become the 17th named storm of the 2012 Hurricane season. When it does, it will be Rafael. It will likely be a named system later today, if not by tomorrow. This system has an 80% chance of further development. Currently the system is generally showing better organization and is likely producing ‘tropical storm winds’ in the outer bands. While the system continues to show an open circulation on satellite, it should close off over the weekend and strengthening is expected. Currently computer models show Tropical Storm Rafael staying off the east coast and maintaining tropical storm strength in the coming days. In the near term, a tropical storm warning may be issued for areas of the Leeward Islands. In the long term, Bermuda should be monitoring this system for possible impacts in the area.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available


Tropical Depression Sixteen #TD16 / Invest #98L – October 11 2012

Hurricane season ends on November 30. With that said we have a newly formed tropical depression this morning, Tropical depression Sixteen. Currently located about 235 miles east-northeast of the central Bahamas at 25.4North 72.6West, TD 16 has winds of 35 mph, a central pressure of 1009 mb and is moving south at 1 mph. TD 16 is expected to have no impact on the US mainland and there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. In fact, little if any strengthening is anticipated with TD 16 and it is expected at this time to dissipate by Saturday.

While TD 16 does it’s thing I’m also monitoring an area currently designated as Invest 98L. Currently this system has a 50 percent chance of further development in the coming days. Estimates currently locate 98L about 350 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands heading west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall and squally winds are possible during the next couple of days in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles.

I’ll keep an eye on both of these systems in the coming days for changes.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems    Tropical page updates automatically when New Data is available

Tropical Depression 10 #TD10, another Tropical Wave exits Africa

As for Tropical Depression 10 .. She is still headed West-Northwestward at 16mph with winds of 35mph and a central pressure of 1007mb. It is anticipated she will become a ‘Tropical Storm’ sometime today or on Friday. She will be named Joyce when that occurs. Currently situated at 13.8North 39.5West about 1045 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands.
She should be no threat to the U.S. mainland, but the Island of Bermuda should be watching her closely as she may impact or come close to the area. Still remains to be seen but here’s the latest computer models.

Also of interest at this time is yet another tropical wave which has exited the west coast of Africa. At this time it has a 10 percent chance of further developing as it continues to head west at about 15mph. You can see this area in yellow to the right in this image.

 See the Tropical Weather Page for Active Tropical Systems