Heavy Snow – Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106.

1155 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OF CT/NY/NJ – CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW – VALID 071755Z – 072100Z

SUMMARY…A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. OTHERWISE…A BROADER TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 1 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION…METARS CONFIRM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM NEAR NYC TO HARTFORD. THIS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 850-700 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THIS ASCENT WILL WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY DESPITE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA AS THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN COOLS AOB FREEZING. AS SUCH…SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PEAK NEAR 1 IN/HR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z.

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Staten Island FEMA Disaster Center Shuts Doors ‘Due to Weather’


A printed paper sign taped to the front door of on the center at 6581 Hylan Blvd. at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday read “FEMA Center Closed Due to Weather.”

The front doors of the disaster recovery center, which is housed inside the Mount Lorretto Catholic Youth Organization, were unlocked, but there was no staff anywhere in sight for at least a half an hour.

A set of buses which served as a pair of warming centers at the site for the past several days were missing, according to non-FEMA volunteers who continued to hand out supplies from a nearby building despite the storm.

Volunteers at a nearby donation distribution center said the buses vanished on Wednesday.

“FEMA packed up and left,” said Louis Giraldi, 47, a volunteer handing out cleaning supplies to victims.

“We don’t know where they are, so there’s nothing here but us.”

The site is listed on FEMA’s list of NYC recovery centers, and was supposed to be open from 8:30 a.m. to 8 p.m. Wednesday. The site was also included in the city’s list of warming facilities supposed to open at 9 a.m. on Wednesday at the site.

A FEMA R/V also sat empty next to the recovery center.

A pair of FEMA workers alarmed by a reporter’s camera came out of the building at 11 a.m. and took the sign down, saying the shelter would open at 12:30 p.m. Wednesday.

source: http://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20121107/tottenville/staten-island-fema-disaster-center-shuts-doors-due-weather

Nor’easter will be No Sandy – November 4 2012

The Nor’easter expected to impact areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast this week will be No Sandy. However due to earlier damage caused by Hurricane Sandy in these areas this storm will have a greater impact.

With that said, we can sill expect strong to gusty winds in areas from 40 to 50 mph which will hamper repair of downed power lines. Winds will also be capable of bringing down tress and branches already weakened from Sandy.

‘Minor to Moderate coastal flooding’ with the high tide around Midday Wednesday looking like the best time for storm surge. With many area beaches and coastal property already having erosion, it is likely this storm will add to this.

‘Rain amounts’ of up to 4 inches can be expected at this time in and around the areas closer to the coast with lesser amounts inland. Due to flooded areas which at this time have not receded any extra water will cause them to rise, and may also cause areas to flood again.

‘Snow will also be a concern’ on the backside of the counter clockwise flow around the storm. Areas likely to see snow at this time are inland in PA, NJ and NY maybe even as far south as VA; these areas ‘could’ see 1 to 4 inches maybe more. I think the New England area ‘could’ see 8 to 15 inches depending on storm path. Uncertainty remains at this time in this as we are still days away form this storm impacting the northeast and the final path is unknown, whether it will hug the coast or be farther away.

Projected Path of Nor’easter Tuesday November 6 thru Friday November 9 2012 and Forecast Rain amounts Nov 4 thru Nov 9 2012

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