April 27 2011 – Before, During, and after Tornado Outbreak in Georgia and Alabama

Like others, I have a lot of stuff in files from April 27 2011. Here is what I have on this blog beginning on April 22 2011 and ending on May 2 2011. These are excerpts from the linked post where more information and images can be found.

Friday, April 22, 2011 – My first post hinting of what was to come – Easter and beyond –

Next week there looks to be another round of storms by Wednesday. Haven’t narrowed down the specifics yet as to whether they will be severe or not.
Current Bufkit soundings hint at the possibility Wednesday evening and night, with high cape helicity values and shear. At this time it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be.

We’ll know more as time goes as that system is still 5 days away.

Saturday, April 23, 2011 – Midwest possible flooding next week –

I’ll be watching this system for impacts on the local area as it develops. It’s still looking to be a strong one.

Sunday, April 24, 2011 – Severe weather probable Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 –

Models still indicating probable severe weather heading for our area Wednesday PM into Thursday AM. The exact timing is still in question, so keep abreast of the situation.

Best guess at this time:

Latest run of the GFS shows the brunt of activity around 11 pm ET Wednesday, indicating strong possible damaging wind and potential hail as main features. Cape and helicity values are highest at this time with cape:1338, Helicity:418, a Cins of 8, and an energy helicity index of 3.495525. Due to these factors, and a looping hodograph, a rogue tornado at this time can not be ruled out entirely with the passage of this system, which will spawn supercells ahead of the approaching cold front.

Monday, April 25, 2011 – Severe storms still on track for Wed. April 27 Thurs. 28 –

This past Friday I mentioned “it appears the further north, the stronger these storms will be”, this still appears to be the case for the local area. However … this does not mean the local area will not see strong to severe storms. Models are still showing this system has the potential of damaging winds, hail, and the capability of spawning a tornado.

None of this is set in stone as we are still 48+ hours away from the occurrence of this event. We are right on the fringe as models show areas to the south of the local area having a more stable environment as the front moves closer to the area. This does not mean those areas wont see strong storms. So don’t let your guard down.

One thing the models [that I use] have done as they get a better handle on this system, they show it coming through the local area earlier that previously forecast. It’s looking more likely the worst of the weather will move through the local area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening, clearing the area early Thursday morning. Thats not to say we wont be seeing any severe weather before the front pushes through, or after with the unstable atmosphere around capable of some regeneration.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011 – Entering Storm Mode for April 27 – Possible Southeast Tornado Outbreak –

At this time it still appears the worst of the storms will stay to our north, as mentioned on Monday. That doesn’t mean we are out of the woods. Hopefully we will not see any tornadoes in the local area, but we all know all it takes is strong wind upwards of 50mph to down trees and power lines causing damage to structures. You may know them as straight line winds, or down burst winds.

Our biggest concern tomorrow will be the development of ‘supercells’ capable of producing tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. We will also have to watch for ‘squall line’ development ahead of the cold front the closer it gets to the area. A ‘squall line’ is also capable of spinning up a tornado, along with severe thunderstorms containing heavy precipitation, hail, frequent lightning, and strong straight line winds.

I can not stress the severity of this situation or adequately without fearmongering.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011 – Update 1 – Live Blogging: Southeast Severe Weather Outbreak 4/27/2011

Original Post – Jumping right in … Already reports this morning out of North Georgia of Widespread Wind Damage, trees down as well as power lines and damage to structures. The worst report at this time:

8:41 AM – “DADE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE IN TRENTON. DADE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL HAD PART OF ITS ROOF LIFTED UP.”

Tornadoes have not been confirmed yet in any of the reports, including the above. We’ll know for sure in a day or two.

The storms that caused the damage in North Georgia is the first round. The Second round will come later today and impact a larger portion of Georgia through tomorrow morning, the local area included. The national weather service has revised the time in which these storms will arrive and depart areas of Georgia.

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Update: 6:06 PM 4/27/2011 – Just a quick update showing current Weather Warnings, Watches and radar. All of this is moving east and will be affecting the local area later this evening and through the early morning hours.

Severe Weather Warnings as of 5:58 PM EDT

Severe Weather Warnings and Radar as of 5:58 PM EDT

Thursday, April 28, 2011 – at 5:59 PM EDT – Severe Weather Outbreak April 27-28 2011 Aftermath –

First, let me apologize for not ‘live blogging’ the event. I became overwhelmed by the destruction and death that occurred in Alabama, as the storms headed for Georgia.

Here in the local area, we were not left untouched by the powerful storm system that moved across the nation causing death and destruction. My home county [ Harris Co Georgia ] had what is yet to be confirmed as a tornado move through. Many areas in Georgia felt the wrath, and many on the east coast are still feeling it.

This tornado outbreak will go down in history as one of few that has claimed so my lives. As it stands at this time, it may be ranked as the second most destructive in the past 50 years. In the coming days, it may find itself being placed as number one ahead of the Super Outbreak of 1974.

I’ll be gathering a few videos and links of damage around the local area in the coming day, and post them here on the blog.

For now, heres a couple radar screen captures showing the storms and tornadoes as they headed for, impacted, and left the area.

Preliminary Tornado Tracks in Georgia

Thursday, April 28, 2011 – at 10:06 PM EDT – Tornado Death toll stands at 292; likely to rise –

204 fatalities in Alabama

via: ema.alabama.gov – this is a pdf file

FROM THE OFFICE OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE, April 28, 2011, 8pm

Number of weather related fatalities climbs

Clanton – The Alabama Emergency Management Agency has confirmed 204 fatalities in Alabama from
the tornadoes and severe weather yesterday. The fatalities are as follows (listed by county):

Friday, April 29, 2011 – at 3:15 PM EDT – Storm Surveys: Georgia Tornado Outbreak April 27-28 2011 –

Here are a images from the completed Georgia storm surveys from the National Weather Service.
All of this information can be found here- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=20110427_svrstorms, as well as more text &images, and future updates from storm surveys still being conducted.

Friday, April 29, 2011 – at 10:06 PM EDT – April 27 tornado outbreak storm rotation tracks image –

National Severe Storms Laboratory has released an image documenting the rotation tracks of the devastating tornadoes on April 27.

Saturday, April 30, 2011 – EF2 Tornado Harris County Georgia April 27 Confirmed –

A National Weather Service survey team determined that an EF2 tornado with winds of 130 MPH crossed Harris, Meriwether, and Upson Counties Wednesday night.

Path of Tornado

Sunday, May 1, 2011 – Social Media and Severe Weather –

This is one example of why I use this blog, twitter and Facebook[here & here] for reporting / relaying information on extreme weather.

Monday, May 2, 2011 – Before After Tuscaloosa, Ala. Tornado Aerial Imagery –

These are reduced images available via ZIP File from noaanews.noaa.gov in Hi Res. There is also a PDF available at the aforementioned link with Low-Res images.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012 – Updated Graphics

Greatest overall threat remains Damaging Large Hail and Strong Damaging Wind for much of the Southeast.

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their graphics. The updates include adding a portion of Mississippi to the Slight Risk area, and a small portion of Central Florida in a 5% Tornado risk area. Most of the Southeast continues to be in the slight risk area of severe thunderstorms and the 2% risk area of seeing a tornado.

The biggest changes from earlier this morning are the Wind and Hail risk areas which were at 15%.

SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Damaging Wind Prob to 30% All of Georgia, Much of Alabama and Florida panhandle.
SPC 9 AM EDT Day 1 Outlook increases Large Hail Prob to 30% for Areas in North/Central Georgia, Alabama , NE Mississippi. and SE Tennessee.

You can see the previous outlook on the blog here

Updated Graphics via the Storm Prediction Center

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1″ or larger within 25 miles of a point.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I’ll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

Southeast Severe Potential Thursday April 5 2012

Still expecting some thunderstorms to meet or exceed severe criteria.

As mentioned yesterday the greatest overall threats still remain Hail, gusty wind and frequent lightning with any of the stronger storms. I will now include a small risk of a Tornado or two somewhere in the southeast as mentioned on April 3rd.

While the overall categorical outlook remains unchanged form yesterday which included much of the southeast from The Gulf coast north through Central Louisiana, north into Missouri and then east to a small area in south Illinois, through the southern half of Kentucky and a small area in southwest Virginia, continuing east through North Carolina to the east coast, the Slight Risk of severe storms has shifted farther north and west.

The Slight risk area yesterday April 4th included Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida. It NOW covers ALL of Georgia and Alabama, much of Florida and South Carolina, Most of Central Mississippi north and south towards Alabama, Much of Tennessee and a small area in Southwest North Carolina.

I have reinserted a small Tornado threat for the southeast due to the fact the Storm Prediction Center has now included it in the updated graphics as of 2:00 AM EDT 4/5/2012. The areas mentioned above in the ‘slight risk area’ are also covered by this 2% tornado probability area.

As mentioned above, the greatest threats form any severe storms that may develop will come from Hail and Gusty winds. The areas mentioned above covered by the categorical outlook [in Green] are included in the risk areas for hail and wind.

The overall Hail risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the ‘slight risk areas’ mentioned above [in yellow].

The overall Wind risk is 5% with an area of 15% risk covering the ‘slight risk areas’ mentioned above [in yellow].

Here are expected rain amounts April 5 through April 10..

To reiterate … greatest threats will be Hail and Gusty winds from any strong thunderstorm that may develop and a small chance of a Tornado.

As always when severe weather threatens the area, I’ll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along there :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.

Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.

P.S. : I see Tornado watches have been issued [at 1:55 AM EDT] for areas in Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi until 9 AM CDT. I expect this will be expanded or shifted east as the day goes on.