97L Tropical Wave / Disturbance Gulf of Mexico / Remnants of Post Tropical Storm Debby

Update: All ares of interest have dissipated. For an automatically updated Tropical Weather Outlook, see the Tropical Weather Page

Original Post below

I’ve been watching an area of disturbed weather currently designated 97L for the past few days way out in the Atlantic. While it’s a bit early for action down that way from my experience, this hurricane season as a whole at this point has been early . I’ll keep an eye on this area currently designated 97L in the coming days for further possible development.

As of 8:00 AM EDT June 30 2012:

Currently designated 97L, this area of activity has a 10 percent chance of becoming a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. Currently located about 600 miles East of the Windward Islands, Maximum sustained winds are 29 MPH extending out about 52 miles. Central pressure was 1013MB. See image below for current computer models tracks.

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Gulf of Mexico continues to produce clouds and some thunderstorms as it moves Northward around 5 to 10 miles per hour. This area has near 0 percent chance of becoming a Tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

The remnants of post tropical storm Debby continue to show shower activity. This area has a near 0 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours as conditions remain unfavorable. Located about 575 miles South of Halifax Nova Scotia, the remnants are moving East Northeastward at about 20 MPH.

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Tropical Depression #Debby Less Organized Heading into Atlantic | Full Track | June 27 2012

Debby is back on track moving east/northeast after a short jog to the southeast late last night. She is now heading E/NE at 10MPH and positioned at 29.6N / 81.0W or about 25 miles Southeast of St. Augustine Florida. Her winds are still 35MPH and her central pressure is 998MB or 29.47 inches.

Debby’s track as of 2:00 Am EDT June 27 2012: Shows track from beginning North of the Yucatan peninsula as a low pressure system on June 22 2012 designated ‘Invest 96L’. Becoming Tropical Storm Debby on June 23 2012. Then becoming a Tropical Depression shortly after landfall on the Florida west coast June 26 2012.

Debby is expected to continue on her current track to the east northeast and enter the Atlantic Ocean sometime today / this morning. Once in the Atlantic her forward speed will increase she may intensify in the coming days. It is uncertain at this time how strong Debby may become, but she does have potential energy to work with from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. We will continue to monitor Debby over the coming days.

Most of the rains early this morning remain off the east coast of Florida, with a few bands to the south still making their way through Central and Southern Florida. In the central and south, some rain heavy at times may be expected and may cause issues from training over the same areas until Debby moves farther away.

Heavy rains over the past few days are expected to continue to cause flooding issues due to runoff into local creeks and rivers. If you live around any of these areas it is requested that you monitor conditions closely.

All Coastal Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. There remains a few areas on the west coast of Florida at this time under coastal flood warnings. Areas in north Florida and Southeast Georgia remain under Flood warnings. Check with your local National Weather Service offices to see if you are under any of these Warnings here – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/largemap.php

Tropical Storm #Debby on the move again / Forecast Track – June 26 2012

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect from Mexico Beach southward to Englewood.

Debby continues moving eastward at this hour while maintaining her strength. Heavy Rains are expected to continue in Northern Florida and Southeast Georgia.

Currently Debby is centered about 70 Miles West of Cedar Key Florida [ Levy County ] and moving East around 3 MPH. Sustained winds this hour are still 40 MPH. Tropical Storm Force winds extend out about 240 Miles from her center located at Latitude 28.9 NORTH Longitude 84.2 WEST, and a central pressure of 993 MB or 29.32 Inches.

The Forecast Track for Debby continues to move her to the East and Northeast making Landfall in the Big Bend area around Cedar Key Florida. Time of landfall is still uncertain at this time. Debby will still be a Tropical Storm while making Landfall. After making landfall Debby is expected to loose some of her strength while over land, and become a Tropical Depression. Debby is then expected to continue to the Northeast reemerging in the Atlantic and may once again become a Tropical Storm. The re-intensification of Debby remains uncertain at this time due to her interaction with land. We’ll keep a close eye on Debby!

Current Forecast Track as of 11 Am EDT

For more information on Debby and other Tropical weather, see the Tropical Weather Page

While winds with Debby have had minimal impacts, the big story is the rains associated with her. Numerous reports of Flooding and Flash Flooding have been reported in North Florida due to the rains and storm surge. The hardest hit area at this time is Wakulla County where the Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy Florida is expected to crest at 41 feet; Flood stage is 28 feet. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee at this time reports the Sopchoppy River Gauge has Failed due to impacts from debris. Last report received was at 9:00 PM EDT Last night with a level of 31.41 Feet. Surrounding counties in the area also affected are Southeast Liberty county, North Franklin county, South Leon county, South Jefferson county, and Northwest Taylor county. See Tropical Storm #Debby Flooding / Road Closures For images.

Rainfall totals form 3 and 7 AM EDT this morning June 26 2012

This is from 8 Am This morning

At 4:00 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a Flood Warning for Urban areas and small Streams in the following Locations until 10:00 AM EDT: JEFFERSON COUNTY IN FLORIDA…SOUTH CENTRAL LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA…MADISON COUNTY IN FLORIDA…NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN FLORIDA…WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

At 5:40 AM EDT The National Weather Service in Jacksonville issued the following Statement: FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE
FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA…GEORGIA…ST MARY`S RIVER AT MACCLENNY AFFECTING BAKER…NASSAU…CAMDEN ANDCHARLTON COUNTIES…FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA…SUWANNEE RIVER AT WHITE SPRINGS AFFECTING COLUMBIA AND HAMILTON COUNTIES…MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST….MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.

You can find information on Florida Road closures here – Florida’s Statewide 511 Website