A chance for wintery weather in the deep south will be coming in Thursday night into Friday morning. Get your cameras ready haha.
Best area for accumulation will be in the norther areas of Alabama and Georgia. There is likely to be no accumulation except on elevated and grassy areas in the central areas of both states as surface temperatures will be to warm.
In areas it will begin as a rain sleet mix and may change to snow briefly. In others areas it may begin as a sleet snow mix and change to all snow. Best time of this, from west to east will be between 3 AM and 10 Am Friday morning.
Rain moves back in Thursday Night / Friday Morning. There is the possibility by Late Friday evening .. thundershowers could be in the area but at this time it looks like mainly a rain event. On Monday there is an outside possibility conditions could come together for some stronger thunderstorms in the area. This is something that will need to be watched.
The bigger threat at this time will be heavy rain expected Friday through Tuesday, with flooding issues.
The first round expected on Friday through Saturday will likely bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in North Georgia and 3 to 4 inches in central Georgia and Alabama, with higher amounts possible. Sunday looks like we’ll have a short break with the next round of rain coming in on Monday through Tuesday, where rainfall amounts of an additional 2 inches could be in store. Total rainfall amounts for the entire period range from 1 to 3 inches over North Georgia / Alabama and 4 to 6 inches over Central and Southern Georgia / Alabama .
Flooding issues …. With heavy rains in Georgia and Alabama the past 2 weeks between 2 and 8 inches, the ground remains moist to wet in areas. This will not allow rainfall in the coming days to be absorbed quickly. This will cause extra runoff into low lying areas, creeks and rivers and cause them to rise at a quicker rate than normal. Flash Flooding will be likely in many areas including Roads.
Rivers and creeks are currently running higher than normal due to previous rainfall and widespread minor flooding is likely, with isolated significant flooding possible. This is something that needs to be monitored in the coming days.
As I have been mentioning most of this week on my Facebook page [ www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather ], there may be snow in the area. This morning my thinking has not changed. In FACT .. the National Weather Service in Peachtree city is now coming on board toward my thinking from past days. They at this time, 5 AM EST Friday February 15 2013 mention a bullseye of Snow of OVER 1 inch, south of Columbus by 1 PM EST Saturday afternoon. They also say less than 1 inch for areas between Atlanta and Columbus around 10 AM EST Saturday Morning. Timing and placement of this is not exact, so I will be monitoring things to narrow it down and posting it on Facebook and tweeting [ twitter.com/cataulagawx ] it when it snows at my location.. Right now I would say between 6 AM and 12 PM Saturday.
As mentioned above and from looking at data, there is indeed a sweet spot or bullseye in central Georgia. Columbus looks to get around 1 inch, and Macon about 2 inches if numerical data from the NAM-06z run is correct.
Athens Georgia should get under 1 inch and Atlanta just over a Tenth of an inch. There isn’t much to go around but there could be more or less depending on how things set up and where. It remains to be seen if snow will accumulate on the ground, it will on cars and other surfaces.
Here’s a few images showing 06z NAM profiles and Skew-t’s for Columbus, Macon, Athens and Atlanta Georgia.