Possible #Snow for #Georgia and #Alabama February 16/17 – #gawx #alwx

At this time models show the potential yet again for snow in the south. Looking at things, this is the best I’ve seen since winter began. Depending on where the Low pressure develops and where it tracks will have a lot to say in this. With that said, this is not a forecast yet, but only an outlook. ‘Right now’ it looks like central Alabama and Georgia will see more in the way of snow than areas to the north. Totals range from a dusting to a Half inch in northern areas to an Inch and a half for central areas. Even as far south as Valdosta GA could see about an inch and Mobile Al seeing a dusting.

Here is one of the tools I use to help me figure out what is going on with the weather, whether it be severe storms or winter weather. As simply as I can explain, here’s what I see for winter weather this weekend that I mentioned last week. For those that don’t care to read all this, at this time models are back on track showing snow in and around our area this coming weekend February 16/17.

SOUNDING/SKEW-T

Red Shows Temperature
Green Shows dewpoint
Yellow shows area of Snow Growth
Blue shows Icing

The scale across the bottom is the temperature scale in Celsius. The 0 [zero] is 32F or freezing. What all this shows is, If there were moisture available during the time shown, in this case around 6 PM Saturday, it would likely fall as Snow. Models do show moisture being available during this time, at this time.

So, what the current GFS sounding is showing is Rain beginning around 12 PM Saturday, changing to Snow around 6 PM Saturday and continuing until about 9 PM. Total accumulation for the local area at this time is about 1 and a half inches at a 10 to 1 ratio , which means for every inch of liquid water, there would be 10 inches of snow. So there’s not much here, but hopefully enough to give us a little snow.

 
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Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show….

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I’ll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe ‘damaging winds’ are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, ‘not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes’.

I’ll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I’ll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter Follow @Cataulagawx
before and when the storms strike. I’m there all the time and don’t always have time to update the blog here 😉

Georgia Severe Weather Saturday, January 21, 2012

A recap of severe weather on Saturday, January 21, 2012 in Georgia

We experienced everything you would expect from a spring time severe weather outbreak, of course we are barely midway through the winter season.

The storm system that moved through the area brought with it Tornadoes, Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, and Flooding to may areas of the state. Hail was reported the size of Golf balls in many areas including the local area. Here at the homestead I received and reported pea to dime size hail and winds estimated at 40 MPH. I picked up about 0.75 inches of rain in under 30 minutes, with a storm total of 1.47 inches. There was also wind damage in the local area with reports of trees being down. Across the north, central and southern areas of the state, many radar indicated tornadoes were warned, including here in Harris county where I reside. At this time none of these radar indicated tornadoes have been confirmed, although I expect at least 2 possibly to be, One in the Coweta County area and another South of Perry Georgia.

Here’s a map showing Tornado Warnings [RED], Severe Thunderstorm Warnings [YELLOW] and Flash Flood Warnings [Green] in Georgia beginning on Saturday January 21 2012 at 12:00 AM EST and ending Sunday morning January 22 at 12:00 AM EST.

Purple with white dots [HAIL REPORT]
Orange with Green [Thunderstorm Wind Damage]
Green with Wavy lines [Flash Flood]
Orange with word ‘WIND’ [Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage]
Red with White Cloud [ Funnel Cloud Reported]

I’ll post an update as information becomes available.