Severe weather still on track for Georgia and Alabama Wednesday JAN 30 #gawx #alwx

This was written for my local area and posted on my Facebook page Cataula Georgia Weather. The local area is Columbus and Fort Benning Georgia and Phenix City Alabama. You can use this information for areas anywhere in East Alabama and West Georgia as the system coming through will cover a large area. On with the show….

The exact time is still in question depending on which model you go by and I will continue to look at them for agreement. Still looking like instabilities will increase sometime after 8:00 AM EST Wednesday morning. Regardless of timing, before the main area comes through we may see some thunderstorms in the area some which could be severe with damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.

The winds will be gusty during this time 20 to 25 mph and will increase as the expected line of stronger storms gets closer and moves through the area to about 40 mph. Gusty winds like this can cause damage without being associated with severe storms. Stronger winds are likely in any severe storm. I’ll also keep a watch for any discrete / individual storm cells developing out in front of the main line. These may become strong enough to bring severe weather to the area before the main line. These type of individual storm cells may also be capable of spawning tornadoes. The greatest threat at this time remains unchanged from my previous posts .. Strong to severe ‘damaging winds’ are likely and the possibility of a tornado or two. As always, ‘not everyone will see severe storms and or tornadoes’.

I’ll be looking at this closely over the coming hours for any changes that may increase the severity of the storms. Right now I do have one concern. As the trough approaches that will be bring the storms to the area, it looks to go from a positive tilt to a neutral tilt. This will increase the wind speeds / shear in both the upper and lower levels. At this time the winds are more than adequate for a damaging wind event and a couple tornadoes. Any increase would make this a larger threat. If the trough should go negatively tilted, the wind and shear would again increase even more. This is something that will need to be monitored and I will be doing just that. I’ll have another update Wednesday Morning or sooner is needed. ~ ED

As always, find me on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGeorgiaWeather and Twitter Follow @Cataulagawx
before and when the storms strike. I’m there all the time and don’t always have time to update the blog here 😉

Monday 12/17/12 Update – Southeast Severe Weather

The possibility of severe storms still exist today for areas in the southeast. Currently [ 5:20 AM EST 12/17/2012 ] seeing some moderate to strong thunderstorms in Southeast Mississippi / Southwest Alabama ahead of the cold front generally heading East-Northeast while the Cold front pushes east.

Radar at 5:20 AM EST

The only thing at this time I see limiting stronger storms developing, some possibly severe, is instability and moisture available ahead of the front. This lack of instability will be on the increase. By early afternoon / mid day Georgia should see storms some of which ‘will be severe’ begin to fire off. As always, ‘Not everyone will see severe weather. I don’t think there is enough time this morning for severe storms to break out in south-central Alabama, but may see some later in East Alabama / West Georgia. At the least should see isolated thunderstorms in these areas as morning pushes on. All of this will eventually make it’s way to South Carolina later today.

As mentioned the past few days the greatest threat will be ‘Damaging winds’ associated with the stronger storms. We’ll have to keep an eye on things this afternoon onward for the potential for an isolated tornado as well as hail.

Here’s the outlook for today issued by the SPC ‘valid at 12z – 7 AM EST’ this morning. [click image to embiggen]

I likely wont be posting further updates on this here. Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx

Southeast Severe Weather December 16 2012 – Outlook for severe 12-19 / 12-20-12

Rain / Storms still on track. As mentioned yesterday – “On Sunday the possibility of severe storms increase and continues into the overnight into Monday.” Main threat still continues to be Damaging winds with stronger storms should they develop. However, due to the setup a LOW threat of a tornado is still present. Not everyone will see severe weather or a tornado. [ Note: Another round of storms expected around Wednesday / Thursday – See below graphic ]

Here’s what the SPC has outlined for today into Monday Morning at this time…

Outlook for Today thru Monday Morning

And Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning at this time…

Outlook Monday morning thru Tuesday Morning – current as of 12:30 PM EST Sunday

Here’s the areas being watched at this time [Sunday afternoon] for possible severe weather on Wednesday Day 4 and Thursday Day 5. At this time the setup is looking interesting and if models remain consistent severe storms should develop in or around these areas.

Outlook for Wednesday and Thursday – Possible Severe Storms

Don’t forget to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed. Follow @Cataulagawx