Tropical Disturbance possible Gulf of Mexico – Katia in the Atlantic – Computer Models

Models differ widely on the development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days. Some bring the system in to Texas, while others bring it in to Louisiana and still others take it across north Florida and up the eastern seaboard. The only consensus, something will form in the Gulf Of Mexico.

Here is a run from the 06z GFS this morning at 72 hours out for September 3 2011. notice where the system is located in the gulf and a tightly rapped Hurricane Katia in the Atlantic. –

Here is the 00z UKMET for the same time frame, notice the system in the gulf a little farther west and south –

The 00z GGEM at 84 Hours for September 3 2011 shows the system impacting Texas –

The 00z Euro running slower at 168 hours for September 7 2011 still has the system in the gulf –

The NOGAPS running even slower developing the system in the Gulf of Mexico, showing it down around the Bay of Campeche at 108 hours September 4 2011 and dropping it all together for the next couple of runs.

These models agree that something will form in the Gulf of Mexico. They also show very well what will become Hurricane Katia still out in the Atlantic as late as September 7 2011. Where and what Katia will do is still open to interpretation, but models suggest she will miss the U.S. at this time.

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