Tropics Update August 29 2011 – Irene – Jose – TD12[Katia]

Post Tropical Irene: Irene continues to track North-Northeast at about 25MPH with Sustained winds of 35MPH, about 100 miles northwest of Houlton Maine. Current position 47.4N 68.8W with a central pressure of 981 millibars. The remaining threat from former hurricane Irene will be rain which may cause flooding.

Jose is currently tracking North at 23MPH with sustained winds of 40MPH and poses no threat to any landmass, and is expected to lose it’s tropical characteristics sometime later today. Current position 37.2N 64.7W 340 miles North of Bermuda, 515 miles South of Nova Scotia, with a central pressure of 1008 millibars.

Tropical Depression 12 [formerly AL92]: As mentioned earlier, this is the tropical system we will be watching in the coming days, week, provided another more robust system doesn’t form in the near.

Tropical depression 12 really kicked it into high gear last night and early today. Yesterday she was given only a 40% chance of developing in to a depression.
Currently located at 9.4N 26.3W or about 395 miles South-Southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, moving West at about 15MPH, with sustained winds of 35MPH and a central pressure of 1009 millibars. TD12 should become a tropical storm sometime today, if not, when she does she will be named Tropical Storm Katia.

Here is the National Hurricane Center forecast track as of 5 AM EDT Monday August 29 2011 –

TD12 5amedt August 29 2011

Here are a couple Model plots for Tropical Depression 12 / Tropical Storm Katia –

TD12 2amedt August 29 2011

TD12 636amedt August 29 2011

It is much to early to tell what or where soon to become Hurricane Katia will go. Should Katia continue on the NHC forecast track she may, and I stress this, Katia ‘may’ impact the east coast of the U.S. Katia may well recurve, being a fish storm and impact no land what so ever. As stated, to early to know at this time and still at a minimum 2 weeks away. I’ll be watching.


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