2012 Weather Year in Review – Georgia and the Southeast

Some of the more interesting weather events of 2012

January 5 2012 – We started the year on a dry note – Georgia Drought Update – January 5 2012

February 14 2012 – Winter Mischief – Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia – Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

March 5 2012 – Severe Weather – MAP – March 2 2012 Storm Reports – NWS Storm / Tornado survey’s

April 27 2012 – Earthquake in Georgia – Magnitude 2.3 Earthquake Appling Georgia April 23 2012

May 14 2012 – We all make mistakes – Well, that was interesting..storms on May 13 2012..Only Human

June 24 2012 – Tropical Storm Debby Dance – Tropical Storm Debby – Track has changed considerably

July 2 2012 – How hot is it ? – Record Breaking Heat in Georgia and Alabama June 29 thru July 1 2012

August 2012 – Tropical Disturbances: To many to choose from during the month, so here is the whole month. August 4 thru 30 2012 Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

September 21 2012 – Still Dry – Georgia Drought Update: Long Term Drought Continues

October 2012 – Hurricane Sandy – Hurricance Sandy Archive *Note: The tropical page linked in many of these posts has no data so don’t bother clicking through. It’s only used to post current data when storms are active.

November 21 2012 – Last post of the year on Georgia Drought – No Improvement – Georgia Drought Update – I expect the Drought update for this week [ January 3 2013 ] and the beginning of the new year will show some improvement after recent rains.

December 23 2012 – Forecast for Christmas Storms – Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012 – While the local area was spared again, others in the southeast were not as lucky.

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Christmas Severe Weather Event in the Southeast – December 25 2012

Regardless of strength and track of the developing low, at a minimum this will be a ‘damaging wind event’. On the extreme side it looks like there will be more than a couple tornadoes to deal with mainly in Central and Southern areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and possibly extreme Northern Florida.

If you’ve followed me long enough you know I won’t / don’t sugar coat what I see. I want you to enjoy your Christmas but I want you to be aware of the storms that will develop during the day Tuesday in Mississippi and Alabama continuing east through the afternoon into the early morning hours on Wednesday in Georgia. I will remind you that not everyone will experience severe weather and/or tornadoes.

Without getting into technical details [ weather speak ] here’s the latest outlook from various National Weather Service office’s around the southeast. Click image to enlarge.

Christmas 2012 Storm Event

Here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center on 12/23/12 AM. This outlook will be updated on Monday and Tuesday Morning and throughout the day Tuesday December 25 2012.

SPC multi panel for 122512 as of 122312

I’ll be keeping an eye on this for further developments.

Technical details [ weather speak ]- 12z NAM and 12z GFS Severe parameters look strong for Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Northern Florida and a tad weaker [Lifted index and Cape] in East Georgia, still looks more than adequate for severe storms at this time.

Looking at latest data from the 12z NAM and 12z GFS, it appears the system has slowed somewhat. Nonetheless Wind Shear is still quite strong with a Jet Streak of 80+ knots on the 12z NAM and 90 knots on the 12z GFS in the areas mentioned above.

The lifted index on both models is -1 to -3 and approaching -5 on the NAM Late Wednesday night. Cape on the NAM is in the 1500 to 1750 Jkg Tuesday evening and around 750 on the GFS during the same time frame. I suspect a feedback issue here.

I expect backing winds will increase the threat of Tornadoes as time goes on. Also depending on cloud cover and rain or lack thereof ahead of the system the overall strength will increase due to heating allowed. Dewpoints will be in the high 50’s to mid 60’s and approaching the 70’s along the gulf coast adding instability and will be transported north.

Be sure to follow me on twitter where I post information when severe weather is happening including radar images and most if not all Tornado and Severe Warnings with information as to location and where the storms are headed.

If you’re local to the Columbus GA, Ft Benning GA, Phenix City Al area, you can also follow my posts on Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather

Posted 1:50 PM EST 12/23/2012

Another round of Southeast Severe Weather for Wednesday / Thursday 12/19-12/20/2012

Moisture already beginning to be pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of this next system. This system is more potent that the one we saw earlier this week move across the south. It also looks to be faster.

Louisiana and Mississippi

Impacts will be felt in Louisiana beginning Wednesday Night moving quickly into Mississippi by Thursday morning. The greatest threat will be damaging winds of 60 mph plus that will accompany a squall line that is expected to develop. Due to strong wind shear and forcing to the surface, it is likely a few tornadoes will spin up quickly. These types of quick spin ups are hard to detect on radar and usually occur without Tornado Warnings being issued.

Outlook for Wednesday December 19 2012

day2otlk_1730_prt_multi panel

Alabama and Georgia

It all comes down to timing as to what will happen in Alabama and Georgia. If it comes in later than anticipated I expect a more robust system with more widespread thunderstorms some that will turn severe. If it comes in earlier than anticipated I expect some thundershowers and a few thunderstorms. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER. Just as the storm system Yesterday, It didn’t get bad until it was to our south and east.

At this time I expect the main line of stronger storms should they develop to enter the east Alabama area between 12 and 2 PM CST [Thursday] and West Georgia shortly after. This timing is subject to change in the next day or so. We’ll just have to keep an eye on this and see what happens. Right now our area is highlighted just as it was yesterday for a ‘slight risk’ of stronger thunderstorms.

Outlook for Thursday December 20 2012

day3otlk_0830_prt_multi panel