Heavy Snow – Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2106.

1155 AM CST WED NOV 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA OF CT/NY/NJ – CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW – VALID 071755Z – 072100Z

SUMMARY…A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR. OTHERWISE…A BROADER TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH RATES NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 1 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION…METARS CONFIRM MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED RADAR REFLECTIVITY FROM NEAR NYC TO HARTFORD. THIS APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 850-700 MB JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT THAT THIS ASCENT WILL WANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY MITIGATE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SNOWFALL INTENSITY DESPITE A TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA AS THE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN COOLS AOB FREEZING. AS SUCH…SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PEAK NEAR 1 IN/HR FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 20-21Z.

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