Tornado Threat Today highest in Central Georgia, Southeast Alabama, North Florida Panhandle 5% ‘risk’ and surrounding areas at 2%. Risk of localized flooding as well due to Expected heavy rains over same areas.
Looks like at this time severe threat will happen Late Monday into Tuesday if anything comes from it. Possibility of strong storms toady into Tuesday, at the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger thunderstorms. This is not a widespread threat. Isolated severe only. Not everyone will experience serve weather.
As I alluded to on Sunday in this tweet, cross posted on Facebook …
Plenty of rain still in forecast and may get bumpy Monday for some. Know more later. #gawx
— Ed Quinn (@CataulaGaWX) September 16, 2012
A little bumpy … I saw from modeling early Sunday cape would be marginal for thunderstorms. I also saw where wind shear would be adequate to support rotation with some of the stronger storms as they move through the area Monday evening into Monday night and Tuesday morning. While the threat for Tornadoes is low, the threat is there. At the least may see some damaging wind events with stronger storms. Heavy rain will also be a problem for some due to abundant moisture training over the same areas.
Here’s the expected Rainfall from Monday through Wednesday
And here’s the 5 day expected rainfall Monday through Saturday
Here’s the current Storm outlook issued 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012. I have concerns this will shift more north in updates issued later today. I’ll keep watching for a change.
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Statement from Storm Prediction Center 2:00 AM EDT Monday September 17 2012
NUMEROUS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY…WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE S CENTRAL U.S. UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED/WEAK SURFACE LOW. WITH TIME…THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD…EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES…ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAKLY ROTATING CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR…IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS — PROVIDING A ZONE OF BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE BUT VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT…THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL — WARRANTING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA. A LARGER/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO IS BEING INTRODUCED FROM SRN LA ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS…WITHIN THE BROADER WARM ADVECTION ZONE. WHILE SHIFTING W-E WITH TIME…SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ROUGHLY THE ERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
As always when severe weather threatens the area, I’ll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.
Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area including Columbus GA, Fort Benning and Phenix City AL are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.