#Ernesto expected to make landfall in or around Belize / TD #Florence 8/06/2012

First and foremost Watches and Warnings…

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 8:00 AM EDT…

* A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS / NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAL INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

* A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

* A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…GRAND CAYMAN…THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER…THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Tropical Storm Ernesto no threat to the U.S.….Ernesto looking stronger on satellite at this hour with deep convection beginning to build around the center and on his eastern side. Currently Ernesto is located at 15.2 North 81.0 West about 145 Miles EAST of Cabo Gracias A Dios on the Honduras / Nicaragua border and has sustained winds of 50 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1003 MB or 29.62 inches. Tropical Storm Winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Ernesto is expected to slowly strengthen in the short term. In the long term over the next 36 to 48 hours Models show Ernesto ‘approaching’ Hurricane Strength and make a turn to the West-Northwest. Ernesto is ‘still’ expected to make landfall in or around Belize along the southern Yucatan. From there Ernesto will cross the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge in the Bay of Campeche and head toward Mexico. Timing and strength of Ernesto at landfall remain uncertain but feel the first landfall in or around Belize will occur in about 48 hours and a landfall in ‘Central or South Mexico’ in about 90 hours.

Here’s the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Storm Ernesto

Florence NOW a Tropical Depression

Tropical Depression Florence continues to weaken at this hour and is expected to further weaken in the coming days becoming a remnant Low in the next few days. Currently Florence is located at 16.2 North 38.8 West about 1610 Miles East of the Northern Leeward Islands and has sustained winds of 35 MPH with Higher Gusts, moving West at 12 MPH. The central Pressure is 1009 MB or 29.80 inches. We’ll keep an eye on her over the next few days.

Update 11:00 AM EDT – FLORENCE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW…

LOCATION…16.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1515 MI…2440 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

This will be the last Update on Florence.

Here’s the most recent Model Plot for Tropical Depression Florence

Be sure and check the Tropical Weather Page for more Information and Graphics.

 Active Tropical Systems – Tropical Storm Ernesto / Tropical Depression Florence

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