Severe Storms are already impacting North Alabama at this hour 1:45 AM EDT 7/31/2012. Numerous Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued thus far.
Looking at radar trends the past few hours the overall coverage of the MCS [ Mesoscale Convective System ] storm complex early this morning is yet to fill in, it is still on track to better organize and bring more severe weather to areas in Alabama and Georgia through this morning and the afternoon hours. The greatest threat will be Damaging winds along with hail, heavy rains and copious amounts of lightning as reported via twitter.
The first round of severe weather is as stated currently impacting areas of North Alabama. I feel as though this area will continue to impact this area and to the south in Central Alabama through the early morning hours. I also feel that the activity entering Northern Georgia will intensify in the coming hours and possibly impact the Atlanta area between 6 and 8 AM this morning.
This complex of storms will continue to build and regenerate throughout the day rotating around the eastern fringe of high pressure located to the west. The storm will rotate in a clockwise manner basically training from North to south.
Here is a panel showing Simulated Radar beginning at 5 AM EDT Tuesday July 31 2012 and running through 5 PM EDT. At this time now 2 AM EDT the simulation has a fairly good handle on what is currently occurring. Click Images to Enlarge.
Here is a graphic showing what I think the movement of the storms will be through the morning and should also occur throughout the day, rotating in the clockwise manner mentioned above.
Here are the most recent graphics issued by the Storm Prediction Center this morning at 2 AM EDT.
Much of the southeast is covered by the ‘Slight Risk’ category for seeing Severe Storms.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Much of the Southeast has a 15% chance while an elevated risk of 30% exist for south Georgia, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. While hail has been reported early this morning, it remains a low risk of seeing any. Only 5% for the entire area.
See the lead up to this event posted Monday July 30 2012 at 5:40 AM EDT here – Georgia / Alabama Possible Severe Storms Tuesday July 31 2012
You can find me on Twitter and Facebook during severe weather events such as this where I post updates and any other time as well. Twitter – https://twitter.com/cataulagawx and Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeather