80% Chance 2,1,3 Split | Invest96L

Looking at satellite imagery early this morning, Chance appears to be a little more east than where she was earlier. Also seeing more convection flare up this morning in the northeast quadrant and shower and thunderstorm development is on the increase. At this time elements are in place for Chance to continue developing and we expect her to be named in the next 24 hours. It looks as if the only thing holding her back at this time is organization. Currently the NHC shows Chance at 80% for further development in the next 48 hours.

Latest data showed winds of 30 knots/35mph which if sustained would fit the Tropical Storm category. Due to the disorganized nature of the system, it’s likely the reason why Chance is yet to be classified as such. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chance today, flying out around 18Z / 2 PM EDT. As long as the flight is not canceled and collected data analyzed, we should know by early evening today if we have a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Debby.

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows what appears to be a closed center of circulation trying to form.

Computer Models once again are having a hard time determining where Chance may go in this early stage. Referring to the 2,1,3 Split above, 2 models have her going East, 1 to the North and 3 have her heading West. With much uncertainty at this time, we are not comfortable in forecasting where a possible landfall will take place. We suggest at this time all areas along the Gulf Coast keep a close eye on this developing system.


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