70% Chance in Gulf now designated ‘Invest 96L’, but we’ll still call her ‘Chance’. Once named, she’ll be called either Tropical Depression Debby or Tropical Storm Debby !
At this time we are giving this area a good probability of becoming a named storm within the next 24 hours. A low has been located near the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with a central pressure of 1007 MB and surface pressure is falling across the broad area. The National Hurricane center is giving this area a ‘HIGH’ chance of further development, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression in the next day or so.
Uncertainty Remains …
Models continue to disagree on the track of Chance. The more reliable tropical models indicate a potential landfall between Panama City and Tampa. Other models take Chance to Texas and North Mexico, while yet others stall her out in the central Gulf of Mexico. The SHIPS Model [Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme] late yesterday 6/21 showed a peak wind speed of 63 MPH, making this a strong Tropical Storm at Landfall.
I must remind you, This is not set in stone. Other factors including possible interaction with land in or around the Yucatan and a frontal passages moving through the area will also be factors in determining track and strength. ALL Areas along the Gulf Coast should remain alert at this time. Do you have a plan on what to do before, during, and after a tropical storm / hurricane ??
What was Hurricane Chris earlier yesterday 6/21, maxed out with winds of 75 MPH and is now a Tropical Storm once again. Currently Chris has max winds of 65 MPH, is moving north at about 14 MPH, has a central pressure of 987 MB / 29.15 INCHES, and is about 540 Miles East/Southeast of of Cape Race Newfoundland. Chris surprised everyone including the NHC.