Tropical Disturbance Gulf of Mexico, Possible Tropical Storm – June 23-26

Global models continue to show steady development of ‘the 30% Chance‘ over the next few days as it meanders in warm waters between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. Upper level winds are expected to diminish providing a more favorable environment for the Chance to develop. At this time the GFS and the ECMWF models are similar in taking the Chance into the Gulf of Mexico and developing a low pressure. They also show the Chance moving northwestward with possible interaction with the Yucatan peninsula while still an area of Low pressure. We think after the interaction with the Yucatan, Chance could possibly reorganize, turn to a North / Northeast trajectory towards Florida, crossing Central Florida and exiting into the Atlantic.

In fact, the GFS shows a broad area of Low pressure in the Yucatan peninsula area on Friday 6/22/12 and brings it to the Florida peninsula Gulf coast around Tampa and the Big Bend area on Tuesday 6/26/12. Possibly Tropical Storm Debby.

It then crosses Florida and exits the east coast into the Atlantic late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning where it looks to regain strength and possibly become a weak Hurricane.

Also of interest is the possible development of another Low in the Bay of Campeche around June 26. We’ll see how that goes as we track the first storm expected to impact Florida on June 26.

At this time there remains considerable uncertainty as to what will occur. I will have a better handle on things once a Low forms. One thing is certain; Areas of Florida and Cuba will see some heavy rain with this disturbance as it evolves.

Here’s the 5 day predicted rainfall amounts valid 8 PM Thursday June 21 thru 8 PM Tuesday June 26.


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