Alabama / Georgia Severe potential LOW Thurs/Fri April 5/6 2012

Not expecting any widespread severe weather in the local Columbus GA / Phenix City Al area. Showers and thunderstorms will be the rule, with some of them isolated in nature possibly approaching severe criteria. No one can pinpoint if this will happen or where should it. Still main threats will be Strong gusty winds, hail and frequent lightning.

Appears at this time the stronger storms will be at or near approaching frontal passage in the local area around 7 AM EDT Thursday morning. Per soundings this is the most unstable time. After that time period, should see mainly thunderstorms and or showers. Some redevelopment later in the afternoon is questionable due to cloud cover and previous rain as mentioned yesterday. Approaching the 7 PM EDT time frame CAPE rises to a modest 873 J/kg supportive of thunderstorms/showers but limited severe potential.

Farther to our south along the gulf coast in Florida the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning. During most of this event Thursday, Bulk Shear remains at or below 40kts, increasing late Thursday night into Friday morning close to 50kts.

All in all, I expect nothing more than thunderstorms/showers with the possibility some of them being severe. When and where I do not know.

Here are the latest graphics form the Storm Prediction Center Valid 8 AM Thursday Morning thru 8 AM Friday Morning…

Southeast Mississippi into South Alabama a portion of South Georgia and Much of Florida is included in the Slight Risk area for strong thunderstorms.

Percentage wise, the above mentioned areas are in a 15% Risk area of seeing Severe storms.

Here’s the Significant Tornado Parameter for 11 PM Thursday night. This graphic depicts the greatest potential for tornadoes during the entire event. Notice as mentioned above; “along the gulf coast the potential for severe storms is greater through the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning.” … Graphic courtesy of Earl Barker @ wxcaster.com

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