Wet and Stormy Southeast Friday and Saturday March 23-24 2012

Showers & Storms around Today Thursday …

[ Radar removed, no longer relevant ]

Based on what I see at this time [2:23 PM EDT 3/22/2012] this is looking more and more like a rain event for the area. Looking at the possibility of 1 inch maybe a little more at this time in the local area. There will be thunderstorms around in the afternoon hours Friday through Saturday morning as the front closes in and moves through the area. The biggest threat at this time appears to be gusty winds with any of the stronger storms that may develop, and the possibility of small hail.

If anything were to become severe in the local area, my thinking is it will be Friday early evening around or after 4 PM EDT during the warmest part of the day. This is not to say that embedded strong storms that may develop within the approaching line of convection before or after this time might go severe. However my thinking is this is not likely to happen given the time frame the front will be pushing through the area.
Enforcing my thinking are marginal at best instabilities. The highest CAPE at the time mentioned above is 709 j/kg, Shear approaching 30kts and Helicity at 74.

Most if not all severe potential should remain south of the Columbus Phenix City Area. To the West and East of the Columbus and Phenix City, severe storms should also remain below this line in Alabama and Georgia based on current analysis. AGAIN, This is not to say that any strong embedded storm that may develop within the approaching line of convection could go severe.

Here’s the outlook for Friday 8 AM thru Saturday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

In the above graphics we do not see the progression of the system through the overnight hours. That being said, during the overnight early morning hours Saturday, the local area will likely be included in the slight risk area and the 15% area of seeing severe storms. However during the overnight hours the threat should remain LOW.

Here’s the outlook for Saturday 8 AM thru Sunday 8 AM

The local area is on the fringe of the Slight Risk area.

This one shows the local area in a 5% area of seeing severe storms

Images provided by the Strom Prediction Center

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