First and foremost … The main threat will be north of the local area, but the possibility remains for strong to severe storms.
As in all of my posts of this nature, this is not meant to alarm you, but to give you a heads up as to what may be heading to your area. I try real hard not to overstate a situation like this. On the same note, I will not downplay a severe risk either. If what I tell you fails to materialize, that’s a good thing.
Okay, on with the show….
Around 11 PM last night after looking very quickly at data I became more concerned with what I saw from earlier. So much so I posted this on Facebook so my Columbus Georgia area followers would be aware of what may happen with the coming storms.
Listen up … I am becoming more concerned for the local area after taking a quick peek at some data. While I still believe at this time it will not be as bad as areas to our north [that’s a given], I do believe it will become quite active around here. I will be looking at more data in the hours to come and will have a blog update tomorrow moring. Always be weather alert even if a tornado threat isn’t as high where you live !!
Some of my followers became alarmed and this was my reply.
I do believe as mentioned things may get active around here. What that will bring is anyone’s guess. Down here the risks will not be a widespread as in areas to our north. There is still a chance of seeing isolated severe storms down here, and from what I looked at earlier that chance has increased from what I looked at even earlier. The timing looks like the most severe will come through in the AM hours of Saturday morning providing what I looked at holds together. Before this time stronger storms are possible. My concern is not meant to say Tornadoes will be a sure thing in the local area, only that the chances are now enhanced from my earlier thinking
I stand by my earlier thoughts.
Possibly verifying my thoughts is this from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IT APPEARS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BECOME VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE AS WIND SHIFT ENCOUNTERS MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF STATES. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO FAVOR SUPERCELLS…THOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS.
Possibly enhancing this is something I mentioned yesterday, a secondary low forming south of the main low. You can see this second low clearly in this graphic on the Texas / Oklahoma border.
Also of concern along with this is a ‘Dry Line’ tailing south from this second low as seen on this surface map issued this morning at 2:29 AM EST. This may also provide enhancement to the system allowing more warm moist air to feed in providing fuel.
This is very serious situation yet to unfold for many areas of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf coast and East to the Carolinas.
Here are the latest Graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 12:42 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning
Categorical Outlook : Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Possible Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Possible Severe Storms Red Area.
Tornado Outlook: 2% risk of a Tornado Green Area, 5% risk of a Tornado Brown Area, 10% risk of a Tornado Yellow Area, 15% risk of a Tornado Red Area. Red Hatched Area : 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Outlook: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots [57 MPH] or higher within 25 miles of a point: 5% risk of damaging winds Brown Area, 15% risk of damaging winds Yellow Area, 30% risk of damaging winds Red Area, 45% risk of damaging winds Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Outlook: Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point. : 5% risk of large damaging hail Brown Area, 15% risk of large damaging hail Yellow Area, 30% risk of large damaging hail Red Area, 45% risk of large damaging hail Fuchsia Area. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
I’ll be getting some sleep and will be back monitoring the situation around 4 PM EST today.
As usual when severe weather threatens the area, I’ll continue to watch and will be posting Updates on Facebook and Twitter. You can follow along here :: My MAIN accounts: On Twitter @CataulaGaWX where I post relevant information as storms approach the area, and Facebook Cataula Ga Weather where I try and do the same.
Also of interest is my other Twitter and Facebook accounts where All warnings for the local area are posted automatically as they are issued. Facebook Page:Cataula GA Weather Alerts And Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS.