Wow .. what a wild couple of days we’ve already had, and it’s not officially Spring yet !!
Here’s a look at the Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings issued from February 29 at 12 AM thru March 1 2012 at 4 AM.
The reason I show you the above is because we have a similar setup beginning Friday into the weekend. My thinking at this time is, the area with the greatest coverage of Warned storms in the image above will likely shift south of where it was. To include Arkansas in the mid-west. In the south and southeast .. Tennessee, North Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia into South and North Carolina as the system progresses to the east. Hopefully like this last system, the deep south will be spared.
It’s really difficult to tell at this time where and what this system will do. The main feature with this evolving system hasn’t been on land out west long enough for models to really get a grasp on it. As you may have guessed, some models show it stronger while others don’t. Some show it slower, while others faster. Some even hint at a secondary low forming south of the main low. All in all we’re going to have to wait a bit longer to really know where it will go. One thing we do know regardless of where it goes, it will produce more severe weather. Just as models differ on timing and placement, Bufkit model data varies with strength. Some models show it being a low cape high shear event, while others have high cape and modest shear.
So … as with other systems, we’ll know more at a later time. For now, here are the latest graphics from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC] Issued at 1:52 AM EST today, valid through Saturday morning This will change over the next day as the maps are reissued.
Categorical Outlook : Risk of Thunderstorms Green Area, Slight Risk of Strong Thunderstorms Yellow Area, Moderate Risk of Severe Storms Red Area.
Probabilistic Outlook : Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Here is one section of wording that caught my eye while reading the outlook that accompanied the graphics above :
NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
Thats quite impressive !!
Translation : Numerous SEVERE wind events are possible along with potential for STRONG tornadoes from either supercells or Quasi Linear Convective Systems mechanisms. At least a few wind events AT OR ABOVE 65 KT [ 75.95 MPH ] and long-track significant tornadoes are possible. – For simplicity, A Quasi Linear Convective Systems is a bow echo capable of producing straight line winds.
Some folks may also have to deal with flooding issues. Here’s the 3 day rainfall prediction valid thru Sunday from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
I’ll have an update on this later; so check back !