Watching Wednesday 2/29/2012 storm potential

Not much change in my thinking from yesterday on the mid week system. Still looking like the better chances of seeing severe storms will remain to the north of the local area in Georgia and Alabama, Wednesday afternoon early evening. We may see some stronger storms late Wednesday evening through early morning hours Thursday. This is yet to be determined as I’m not sure at this time where the approaching front will stall in the area, but it is possible as the main area shifts to the east. Depending on where the front stalls, it is not out of the question that showers and a possible strong storm will be around the area Thursday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70’s approaching the 80’s, with dew points in the low to mid 60’s for Wednesday and Thursday. A moist environment to say the least providing fuel for storm development.

The best timing for potential strong to severe storms will be from around 5:00 PM EST Wednesday through about Midnight. That’s not to say we won’t hear some rumbles of thunder earlier and the possibility of a stronger storm throughout the day Wednesday. The main threat at this time appears to be strong damaging winds; however, a quick spin up tornado can’t be ruled out in the southeast.

Slight Risk area: The local area remains south of the ‘slight risk’ area.
As mentioned above, there is the possibility of strong storms to hang around Thursday as the main area shifts to the east. This is depicted in the below graphic from the Storm Prediction Center [SPC]. As you can see the ‘slight risk’ area [ shaded yellow ] dogleg from Central Georgia southwest through Alabama into Mississippi. This graphic is valid 5 AM Wednesday thru 5 AM Thursday.

Probabilistic Outlook area: The local area is now on the southern most fringe of the 5% probability of seeing severe storms, with the northern areas included in a 15% area at this time. A higher 30% risk area covers much of north Alabama, Mississippi and a small area in northwest Georgia, extending well north into Tennessee and the upper Ohio valley. This area will likely shift east as well as north to extend into the Carolinas early Thursday.

Looking ahead: Still ironing out the specifics for the Weekend system. This will become clearer once the mid-week system moves through. At this time I still see the potential for strong to severe storms. How strong, when and where will greatly depend on what the mid-week system does.

Check back for updates !

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