Severe Weather Threat Saturday / Sunday – Georgia / Alabama 2/18-2/19/2012

Slight Risk of Severe Weather this Weekend. Biggest Risks at this time include Damaging Winds and Possible Tornadoes. This is an evolving risk, details will become clear as the event nears. I will be monitoring this situation and will keep you updated.

Take this threat serious as we are beginning the transition period from winter to spring in the south. Already this year we have seen severe weather including Tornadoes in the south. Fourtanatly for us the last threat in January did not materialize in west central Georgia or east central Alabama.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes.

I have already heard mention in my circle of this setup being similar to the tornado outbreak of March 2007. The only difference from then and now is that the atmosphere is going to be more “water-loaded”, which could override severe elements.

Here is the latest wording and graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES THRU THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES…

ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPECIFICS OF THIS EVOLUTION…PARTICULARLY TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS…MOST GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KT…ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE…AS A STRONGLY DIFLUENT WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK…SHIFTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH…STRENGTHENS IN EXCESS OF 90 KTS.

…CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES INTO THE S ATLANTIC COAST STATES… DESPITE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION EVIDENT IN THE MODEL DATA…GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM…IT APPEARS THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ADVECT INLAND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. EVEN IF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY…AS COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE WEST…SUFFICIENT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES EXHIBITING LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR…THIS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER…OR CLUSTERS…AS WELL AS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

IT CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT ONE LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID DAY SATURDAY…BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES…WITH PERHAPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT TORNADIC THREAT IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS…BUT THE DETAILS ARE LESS CLEAR AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE EITHER MIGRATES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT…OR REDEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

Some areas may have to deal with localized flooding as well. Here’s the outlook Today thru Tuesday of next week for Rainfall – The latest from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

A VIGOROUS DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING…AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST…A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY…SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES…WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

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