Update 3 – Winter precipitation Alabama / Georgia – Monday / Tuesday 2/13-2/14/2012

Update #3 FINAL – 6:15 AM 2/14/2012

Not to gloat but .. I was correct. Sleet did make it to the local area.

Here at the homestead Moderate Sleet began 11:39 PM EST 2/13 – 12AM EST 2/14 Sleet mixed with rain – 3:37 AM EST 2/14 Heavy Sleet mixed with rain – 3:50 AM EST 2/14 Rain.

There where many reports from Alabama and Georgia. Here are some of the areas around the local area, others can be viewed below in earlier reports below.

Salem Al
LaGrange Ga
Auburn Al
Manchester Ga
Near Exit 64 off I-85 in Alabama
Cataula Ga
Columbus GA – water works on River Rd
Ladonia / Whiterock Al
Cataula Ga – HWY 315 near Mulberry creek elementary school
Pine Mountain Valley GA
Phenix City Al
Waverly Hall GA

There was no accumulation.

**********

Update #2 – 10:00 PM 2/13/2012

Sleet and rain/sleet mix being reported across many areas of Alabama. Latest reports via Twitter: Heavy Sleet in Gadsen and Green Hill also reports from Anniston, Pratville, Millbrook, McCallan, Jacksonville, Bagley, Fyffe, Talladega, Ashville and Pelham as well as other areas. Temps are falling slowly and dew points are rising. Currently here at the homestead 37.7°F @ 10:00 PM EST … Here’s a radar shot, the yellow areas are likely Sleet – rain/ sleet mix.

Radar as of 9:53 PM EST 02/13/2012. Heavier pockets of sleet yellow and reds.

Via NWS Birmingham Al

The area continues to head east. See below for earlier info. and predictions.

**********

Update #1 – 9:15 AM 2/13/2012

Updated to add a couple profile soundings for Columbus Georgia.
Not much change at this time from forecasting offices.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing IP [ Ice Pellets / Sleet ] At 12:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

This is the GFS3 Skew-t showing ZR [ Freezing Rain ] At 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning for Columbus.

The first sounding above is plausible showing Ice Pellets / Sleet. The second one is less so showing the Freezing Rain as surface temperatures are above freezing, so this may be some Sleet mixed with rain. The time frame for this would be from 12:00 AM EST to 3:00 AM EST Tuesday morning, at this time.

I’m still thinking areas to the north of Columbus will see the best chance of seeing any winter precipitation. Farther north = better chances. I do not expect any of this to accumulate locally.

**********

Original Post at 1:07 AM 2/13/2012

This will be an overnight event for the local area. Monday night thru Tuesday morning.

Just some thoughts about what may happen.

Here are the most recent graphics from the National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia and the National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama, issued Sunday afternoon.

My thinking on this …. After going over current data as of 12:20 AM 2/13/2012, I think the local area will see some sleet. I think at times such as the onset of the event, some of this may be heavy and not mixed with rain. I do not expected any accumulation on roads or even grassy areas. There may be some accumulation on cars and other surfaces for a short period. I do not expect any of this to cause any problems.

I think the farther north you go, the best chances of accumulation on grass and elevated surfaces. The northern most counties in my coverage area, Troup and Meriwether counties will see the best chance of Snow. While this will become mixed with rain and sleet, I am expecting mostly snow at the beginning of the event. South of there, moderate sleet at the beginning then mixing with rain.

This is my coverage area ..

There are a few if’s for this event…. If the rate of sleet or snow is high, it may overcome surface temperatures and allow some accumulation. This would occur in the northern most counties. If the warm air does not enter the picture until late in the event, there may be more accumulation possible then what is currently forecast, which at this time is 0% in the local area south of Troup and Meriwether counties in Georgia and farther north in Alabama.

Towards the end, it will be all rain in the local area.

Here’s a look at liquid amounts for the event. The local area is within the 0.50 to 0.75 inch zone.

P.S.- I am not a professional meteorologist 😉

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s