Update 2 – Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday – Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Storm Prediction Center RAISES SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE BOARD Georgia,Alabama Severe Threat

Update #2 – 8:45 AM EST 1/26/12

Slight Risk area now covers much of the Southeast.

Tornado Probability : The local area is now at a 5% risk of a Tornado from 2% earlier [Scroll down for previous graphic in Update #1]

Wind Probability : The local area remains at a 15% risk of Damaging Winds with the 30% Risk [not instated earlier] now at the Alabama Georgia State line.

Hail Probability : Hail coverage area extended, still to our west. Local area still excluded.

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Update #1 – 5:15 AM EST 1/26/12

Threat remains for Damaging Straigtline Winds and isolated Tornadoes in the local area, East Central Alabama, West Central Georgia.

The Storm Prediction Center continues with the Slight Risk for strong thunderstorms across the area. There is also an area in South Alabama encroaching on central Alabama for the greatest threat for Tornadoes with a 5% probability extending south and west covering the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Mississippi. A 2% probability of a Tornado covers the remainder of our area extending over most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, the Florida Panhandle and Southwest South Carolina.

As mentioned, the biggest threat will be from Damaging Straightline Winds occurring with the Squall Line as it pushes east. All of the Columbus local area and Phenix City area is now included in a 15% probability of seeing these damaging winds. The 15% also covers most of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle. At this time the threat of Hail is 5% and is contained to our West covering Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

LATEST THINKING IS RENEWED FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE OVER MS/SERN LA BEFORE PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SUPPORTS DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. OTHERWISE…AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO PERHAPS PORTIONS OF ERN GA/SC DUE TO A DECAYING SQUALL LINE.

From The National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia

An area of low pressure will move across the Tennessee Valley on Thursday with a trailing cold front approaching the Gulf Coast states. Ahead of this front…abundant moisture will allow for the development of Showers and Scattered Thunderstorms across the forecast area Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. Isolated strong to severe storms will accompany this activity overnight with Damaging Winds and Isolated Tornadoes being the primary concerns. With 1 to 3 inch rainfall totals expected in already saturated areas…the flash flooding potential over North Georgia will also need to be monitored closely. Please reference the Flash Flood Watch for more information on potential flooding.

And from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

The severe threat will shift into east Alabama Thursday evening. The greatest threat area for severe will be south of I-20 and east of I-65. The severe threat should be over by midnight.

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Original Post – 5:53 PM EST 1/25/2012

I’m not going to downplay the storm system heading our direction. I will also try not to overstate the severity. I am not trying to scare anyone. I just want you to be aware of the possibility of severe weather.

The biggest threat will be damaging Straightline Winds from a Squall line that is expected to form. Within this line, there is the possibility of Isolated Tornadoes.

With that, here is the latest statement from the National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
255 PM EST WED JAN 25 2012

MAJOR CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AS A RESULT OF THE HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELED INSTABILITIES PEAK ACROSS THE CWA 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 15Z FRIDAY…WITH ML CAPE GENERALLY IN THE 200-300 J/KG RANGE. DECENT SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THESE INSTABILITIES…WITH 0-1KM SHEAR IN THE 25-35KT RANGE AS THE MAIN LINE PUSHES INTO THE STATE…AND INCREASES TO 40-45KTS ACROSS THE CSG AND MCN AREAS BY 06-12Z FRIDAY. JUST BEHIND THESE MAXIMA…MODELED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 65-75 KTS. AS A RESULT…CAN EXPECT TO SEE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION. SPC ALREADY HAS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WITH THIS STRONG EVENT EVOLVING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS…IT IS IMPORTANT TO PREPARE NOW. DO NOT LET THESE STORMS CATCH YOU OFF GUARD.

And the latest graphics from the National Weather Service Birmingham, AL

See Previous post Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday – Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012 for more information. Contains lead up info.

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