Severe Weather Threat Thursday / Friday – Georgia / Alabama 1/26-1/27/2012

Another heads up to the potential Severe Weather heading our way. I mentioned this threat as early as Saturday 1/21/2012 on Facebook and Twitter; since, I have mentioned the threat daily.

As with any mention of severe weather, no one knows to pin point accuracy where it might occur, until it does. The latest information and statements released give us a general idea of where and what to expect. It is up to you, the reader, to take every measure possible to keep yourself safe.

What to expect: Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds, Heavy rain with possible flooding, Possible hail, and possible Tornadoes. The system heading our direction is already responsible for this in Texas.

The timing on this system appears to be mainly late tomorrow night through early Friday morning.

I will monitor and continue to keep you updated through My Facebook Page: Cataula GA Weather Alerts And My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.

Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center. Our area is in a Slight Risk for severe weather. This area has shifted since the last release. It is now farther east and north. It may be extended even farther east and north with the next release.

Severe Probability Risk: Our area is now in a 15% risk. This has been updated, as we were in the 5% risk area yesterday. I am hopeful upon the next release the percentage does not increase.

Here is what they said in their most recent statement….

CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST REGION…

GIVEN THE CONTINUED SLOWER EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX UPPER LOW/ TROUGH INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD…THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE WWD INTO MORE OF ERN LA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. THIS CHANGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT ANY ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AT 12Z THURSDAY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN A MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED EWD INTO WRN GA AND THE REST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE TX LOW…THESE DIFFERENCES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE ERN EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY…WHICH NOW INCLUDES THE ATLANTA AND TALLAHASSEE METRO AREAS.

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY CROSSING LA. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/ PRECIPITATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK/MOIST-ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT…LIMITING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. STILL…WITH A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCING EWD AND ACCOMPANYING SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS PER 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ VEERING TO 50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS…THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN EVIDENT. THESE THREATS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING QLCS.

Here are the most recent statements released by various National Weather Service offices covering our area, to include Georgia, Alabama and Florida.

National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE SIGNIFICANT AND WORTHY OF ATTENTION. NAM MUCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AT 18Z IN NW GEORGIA WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE TO WORK WITH…EVENT
EVOLVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH SPC KEEPS OUR AREA OUT OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK…THE THREAT OF TORNADOES…STRONG WINDS…AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS EVENT IN AND AROUND METRO ATLANTA AND POINTS SOUTH. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE TO REPEAT OUR PATTERN FOR QLCS ACTIVITY…WHICH HAS PROVEN TO BE POTENT AT PRODUCING TORNADOES IN NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

You may have noticed the mention of the SPC in the above statement. We are NOW in the SLIGHT RISK coverage area.

National Weather Service Birmingham, AL
BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE THURSDAY WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN 1/3 COUNTIES.

National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola
THERE HAS BEEN CONTINUED CONCERN ON THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA THURSDAY…THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LVL JETS COMING INTO PLAY BEGINNING LATE MORNING THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA…AND WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM…EXITS EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. CAPES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ARE INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING…WITH HELICITIES TOPPING OUT AROUND 300 M^2/2^2. HAVE WITH THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD…WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

National Weather Service Tallahassee, FL
There is a potential for severe weather Thursday evening through mid-morning Friday as the aforementioned low advances towards, and eventually passes just northwest of our local area.
Strong upper level winds and marginal instability will combine to produce a threat for damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado in any severe storms that may develop.

With all that, please take this threat seriously. Every Weather Service in Georgia, Alabama, and north Florida including the Storm Prediction Center has mentioned Strong to severe storms, Possible damaging winds and Possible Tornadoes.

For weather geeks ….

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s