First and most important – This is NOTHING like April 27 for our area. That was a generational outbreak.
Severe Weather Threat – Sunday 1/22 Monday 1/23
Timing – For our area in West Central Georgia and East Central Alabama, [ROUND #1] it looks like the weather will begin to become problematic this afternoon from 3-4 PM onward . [ROUND #2] The worst of the weather looks like it will be coming through in the early hours on Monday anywhere from 3 Am through mid morning 10 Am or so. This may and could all change as the system and day progresses. Please stay weather aware.
I do not expect storms around the local area to be as numerous as those on Saturday. I think most of the really bad stuff will stay to our north. I mentioned this yesterday on Facebook. However, should we experience a severe storm, it will likely have the same ingredients as those of Saturday. That being Strong winds, Hail, Frequent Lightning, Heavy Rain and yes, the threat of a Tornado.
When dealing with potent systems like we experienced many times including Saturday, it is really hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen, when and where. The general rule is be prepared when the mention of severe weather is forecast in and around your area. With that being said, here is what the Storm Prediction Center is showing for our area in the coming hours.
First the General Categorical Outlook. This is telling us what kind of threat the storms are and will pose. As you can see in this image the local area is not far from the Slight risk area outlined in Yellow. Remember this will shift east as time goes by. This does not mean the storm will be as strong when they get to a particular location. On the other hand it also does not show us that the storms will loose any strength as well. It gives us a general idea of what to expect in an overall picture.
Next is the Tornado Outlook. This is where the biggest threat is of Tornadoes occurring in the General area from above. As you can see, the local area is again not that far from the Green shaded area, which represents a 2% chance of a Tornado occurring in that general area. With that in mind, there is a low risk of Tornadoes in our area. That does not mean one could not be spawned just as the storms on Saturday did. We were outside the 2% area Saturday as well.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Next in line is the Wind Outlook. This represents were you might expect strong to damaging winds to occur in a general area. Here we see the local area is well within the 5% area and just outside the 15% area. From this we can tell from what we have looked at thus far, Wind will be a larger threat than tornadoes in our area, produced from within a stronger thunderstorm should one occur in the approaching system.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Finally we look at the potential for large Hail in the given general area form above. As we can see from this image, we are well outside the threat area. This does not mean the possibility doesn’t exist of hail occurring from one of the stronger thunderstorms embedded within the approaching system, just as mentioned above with wind.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
With all that said .. the biggest threat we face is possible damaging winds. Cant rule out hail or even an isolated Tornado though.
When the weather turns severe you need some way of getting Warnings when issued. A NOAA Weather Radio properly programmed is likely the best choice. Here are some alternatives.
*My Facebook Page Cataula GA Weather Alerts: LIKE IT to receive the Alerts. All warnings for the local area and then some are posted there automatically. You can subscribe via SMS if you like (text message to your phone) by clicking the link on the left side column at the bottom titled ‘Get Updates via SMS.
*My Twitter Stream @CataulaGaALERTS on Twitter: All warnings for the local area are posted automatically on this account within seconds of the time they are issued.
*iMap WeatherRadio App: This is available now for iPhone only, but an Android version will be released soon. The GPS chip in your phone knows where you are, and if you are in a polygon warning, you get it. If you are not in the polygon, you won’t be alarmed. Also, you can program fixed locations.