Update 1 – Turning Colder, Chance of ….

Update 10:09 AM 12/31/2011 – The cold will be here, but it doesn’t look like the moisture will. No snow for the area at this time on this run.

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Original post 12/29/2011

Next week it will turn colder, some of the coldest temps we have seen yet this winter season in our local area in Georgia and Alabama, and the deep south in general for that matter. For the past week I, as well as others including our local meteorologist have been watching the computer models. The models have been swinging as they do, still not yet able to determine exactly what the weather the coming week will bring. Over the past day or so, the models are coming into better agreement with each other as to the placement and amount of cold air that will infiltrate the deep south.

Just as we have seen in the recent past with frontal passages, shortwaves in varying strength have followed them bringing unsettled weather to the area. While this still appears to be the case in the short term during the coming pattern change, the quantity of shortwaves will lesson. One such SW will be moving through the area next week, mid week. The exact time is still in question as earlier models runs had one pushing through the weekend of January 7-8 2012, and now as early as the 5th or 6th of the coming week. A couple of the latest models runs even show a low pressure / closed low forming. On one hand it shows a weak low forming in the gulf of Mexico, and on the other a strong closed low forming off the east coast. I might add that model runs early on showed this happening, they backed off, and now it’s back, a good sign.

So what does this all mean for us?

It means there is the possibility as of this posting for the local area to some wintery precipitation in the coming week. How much, what type and to what extent is still up in the air. Right now it looks like a dusting to an inch if it is snow. It may be just plain ol rain. It may not happen at all. There is a slightly better chance of it happening than not at this time. Why do I say that ?? Mainly because of what I read earlier from the National Weather Service in their area forecast diccussion. One from the NWS in Peachtree City, GA., and the other from the NWS in Tallahassee, Fl..

AFD from NWS Peachtree City, GA. – ISSUED 620 AM EST THU DEC 29 2011: THE GFS BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. WILL THEREFORE ADD CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY TO THE CWA AND KEEP WEDNESDAY NIGHT DRY.

AFD from NWS Tallahassee, Fl. – 140 PM EST Thu Dec 29 2011: As the trough lifts away, temps will moderate somewhat on Wednesday. However, another potent short wave is progged to dive southeastward across the area on Thursday. We will show showers with this feature for now. However, it is not out of the question that we will be dealing with non-liquid precipitation with this system. Stay tuned.

This event is still a week out and will likely change from model run to run. I’ll know more in a few days, and will post an update on Monday or Tuesday of the coming week.

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