Slight Risk of Severe Weather today in Alabama and Georgia – December 22 2011

Possible Tornadoes, Supercells and Damaging Winds.

I dont think from what I looked at we will have to deal with any of this. This is just a heads up as to what may and can happen today. Yes we are in the month of December, but this is the south where during this time of year anything can happen, nonetheless the risk is slight but it is there.

So what do I mean anything can happen ? It was March 1 2009 when close to 6 inches of snow fell in the area. The day before on February 28 2009 a Tornado hit Lee and Tallapoosa counties in Alabama across the river. Ten days earlier in Georgia on Feburay 18 2099 at least 10 tornadoes were confirmed across north and central Georgia, as well as many hail and wind damage reports.

So you see,it can happen.

Here is the outlook for todays Slight Risk from the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST WED DEC 21 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS WRN TX INTO COAHUILA WILL TRACK
E/NEWD ACROSS TX THIS MORNING BEFORE DAMPENING AS IT ACCELERATES
NEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK CYCLONE WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OFF
THE TX COAST...ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO NRN AL...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY FRI.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH...
A SWATH OF RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU ACROSS ERN TX INTO
PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
SHOULD RETARD THE NWD RETREAT OF THE FRONT...WITH THIS BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO BISECT LA/MS INTO NRN AL BY 18Z. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS COUPLED WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH MID-LEVEL
DCVA/LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD PROMOTE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING E/NEWD ALONG
THE FRONTAL ZONE. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS PROMOTING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER E/SE...A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE DISCRETE TSTMS SHOULD FORM
WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. THIS
SCENARIO IS INFERRED BY OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE WITHIN AN AXIS OF
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF-NMM AND
HRRR GUIDANCE. DESPITE POTENTIALLY LIMITED SURFACE HEATING...65-70 F
SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPE TO INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 400-800 J/KG. 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-250 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES/DAMAGING
WINDS...PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO MID-AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH NEWD EXTENT
TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT
EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY DIVORCED FROM THE WARM SECTOR.

..GRAMS/ROGERS.. 12/22/2011

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