Final Update: 10:00 PM 11/30/2011
The event was much as I anticipated.
Locally, reports of rain snow mix, snow showers in areas of north Harris county. Snow in north Georgia and Alabama 1-2 inches and less.
Update: 9:00 AM EST 11/27/2011
I’m not going to change anything from previous [Below] at this time. Still looking at a chance of sleet mixing in with rain at times or a snow flurry or two in the local area.
Best chance of seeing any winter precipitation, early Tuesday.
Things could change between now and Tuesday and likely will with such a dynamic system as this. Will we get a surprise ?
An interesting set up coming this week. I toyed with this over on my Facebook page earlier this week.
Northern Alabama and Northern Georgia may see some accumulating winter precipitation.
Pretty sure from looking at models, any precipitation that falls in central Georgia Saturday into Sunday will be liquid. Models vary Late Sunday night into Monday and further into the coming week.
Should the slower and deepening model solutions come into play, we may be looking at some frozen type of precipitation in the northern tiers of Alabama and Georgia Monday night, and with enough wrap around moisture from the cut off low which is expected to form may see wintery precipitation into Tuesday morning.
I’m not looking for anything to fall in the frozen category in the local area. Should the cut off low position itself further south, slow to a crawl and allow the colder air further south to interact with abundant moisture which is expected, there is a slim chance of seeing some flurries or sleet in the local area. If anything frozen does fall locally accumulation is not expected as ground temperatures are still quite warm. This all depends on the specific track of the low in question.
On a wetter note: We will be picking up some much needed rain if nothing else. Winter doesn’t officially begin until December 22. The first week of December looks interesting as well.
I’ll have an update Saturday or Sunday at the latest.
Here’s some model runs in no particular order: