Isolated Strong to Severe Storms still on tack for Tuesday 11/22..

..through the overnight hours into Wednesday 11/23.

Anytime Tuesday after 12 PM through Wednesday 7 AM the potential for isolated severe weather will be present. From Bufkit soundings, here are the time frames I see the best chances of seeing severe weather in the Local Area Tuesday into Wednesday:

Per NAM : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 11 AM – 12 PM EST Tuesday to about 8-9 PM EST, and from 12-1 AM EST Wednesday to around 7 AM EST.

Per GFS : time frame for best chance of seeing severe will be 3-4 PM EST Tuesday to about 6-7 PM EST, and 1-2 AM EST Wednesday to around 4-5 AM EST.

Many National Weather Service offices continue to mention the ‘threat of isolated severe to strong storms’ in Georgia, Alabama, the panhandle of Florida, South & North Carolina.

The biggest threat still remains ‘strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, and possibly a Tornado’ or two.

Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday 7 AM EST through Wednesday 7 AM EST… I left out the technical jargon..

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUESDAY FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH QLCS [Quasi Linear Convective Systems] THE DOMINANT MODE AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN 45+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS IT CONTINUES EWD…AND STORMS MAY UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING AS THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND…BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE IS EXPECTED IN THE CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY SPREAD EWD INTO NRN GA AND SC OVERNIGHT.

Here’s the latest Convective Outlook Graphic for Tuesday 11/22/2011. The local area in now included in the 15% probability for isolated severe storms. Yesterday, we were in a 5% area.

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via the NWS Peachtree City, GA Covering the local area and areas to our north and east..

MAIN CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE FORECAST AREA DEEP IN THE WARM SECTOR… EXPECT MID-UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PRODUCE 500-1000 CAPE INTO TUESDAY EVENING WHEN STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA. THESE CAPE VALUES COUPLED WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEER AND HELICITY FROM STRONG VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST ALABAMA STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH INTO GA. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES AHEAD AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING A MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER…ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS RECENTLY INCREASED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON LINE. BEST GUESS ON SEVERE THREAT TIMING IS NW AND WEST CENTRAL GA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM…THEN AREAS FURTHER EAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT STORMS TO BE WEAKENING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 3-4 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING IF NOT SOONER…ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT… WHICH IS NOT PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT…HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPS…WENT WITH A MAV AND MET BLEND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EXPECTED NEAR OR NEW RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY.

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via the NWS Birmingham, AL covering areas to our West including Lee & Russell Counties, Auburn / Opelika and Phenix City Alabama….

THE NAM SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE LINE ACCELERATING EASTWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE LINE SHOULD REACH THE NW COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM. WITH AN ERODING UPPER CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS WEST ALABAMA…THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE THREAT WILL BE EAST ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM MODEL IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA. SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA…BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY FOR LOCALIZED STRONG STORMS.

VEERING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WINDS BY SUNSET TUESDAY WILL LIKELY END THE THREAT OF PRE-SQUALL LINE SUPERCELLS WITH THE FOCUS FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. DESPITE LOSS OF HEATING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE…STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

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NWS Tallahassee, FL covering areas to our south including southwest Georgia, southwest Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend area…

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WHILE IT IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. BY THE TIME THE STORMS REACH OUR FORECAST AREA…SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THEY WILL BE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

This was a follow up post on Potential Severe Weather Thanksgiving Week 2011 posted Sunday, November 20, 2011.

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