Georgia / Alabama Severe Weather Possible Wednesday 11/16/2011

The biggest threat at this time [*9:41 PM EST 11/15/2011*] appears to be damaging straight line winds, hail, and minor flooding in heavier downpours. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out at this time in the two state area.

Here is the latest from the National Weather Service Peachtree City, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION…UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011

FIRST ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN APPEARS TO IMPACT THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING…BUT THE MAIN ROUND OF PCPN WITH TSRA POTENTIAL EXPECTED IN THE 16Z-02Z [12 PM – 10 PM] TIME FRAME. GIVEN PROGGED CAPES NEAR 1000…LIS OF -3…0-3KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 200…PWS NEAR 1.5 OR BETTER…AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80…THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS PRETTY SIGNIFICANT. ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE…EVEN ISOLD TORNADOES.

Caption for above image: A cold front will push through the Tennessee Valley and approach Northwest Georgia Wednesday. Abundant moisture ahead of the front will allow for showers to develop tonight, with isolated thunderstorms possible after midnight in northwest and west central Georgia. A strong upper-level trough will move across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening and combine with above normal moisture levels…moderate instability…and strong shear to produce scattered thunderstorms…a few of which may become severe.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA COMES AROUND THANKSGIVING.

Here is the latest from The National Weather Service Birmingham, AL ALL TIMES CENTRAL STANDARD TIME

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
615 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2011

THE COLD FRONT WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS TO THE EAST…WITH THE FRONT THROUGH BIRMINGHAM AROUND NOON AND LINGERING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS LATE AS MIDNIGHT. A SLOWER FRONT MEANS ADDITIONAL TIME FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO HEAT UP…BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA…BUT FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH A STRONG WIND PROFILE…WILL BE ENOUGH IN A 80F/60F AIRMASS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

I will have an update on this severe threat in the morning, November 16 2011.

Should the weather turn severe and watches and warnings are issued, See the ticker at the top of the blog. These ticker alerts are somewhat delayed. The best way to stay updated on the severe weather would be to follow either my Twitter account here – https://twitter.com/CataulaGaWX or my face book page here – http://www.facebook.com/CataulaGaWeatherAlerts

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