Tropical Storm OPHELIA

Ophelia is on the board. Check the Tropical Weather page for updated graphics, public advisories and discussion which refresh when new ones are issued.

Current information as of 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :

LOCATION...12.2N 40.1W
ABOUT 1585 MI...2555 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Discussion Highlights 11 PM EDT September 20 2011 :

WHILE OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD…THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME…THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME…ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS…LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST…FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8…DUE TO THE RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH…AND A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME…THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES…WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD…BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.2N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.4N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.7N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 12.9N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 13.2N 50.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 15.0N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s