Hurricane Irene Update – Landfall August 27 2011

Hurricane Irene is now a Strong category 1 hurricane. With winds still expected to be a threat early on, the bigger threat will be storm surge and rain amounts. This is provided she continues to weaken as she moves north northeast on her projected track.

Here are a couple screen grabs I took moments ago –

Hurricane Irene making landfall 524AMEDT AUGUST 27 2011

Hurricane Irene Rain total 1040pm-519amedt August 27 2011 Roughly 6½ hours

Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center at 5 AM EDT, with forecast track and model plots following the text.

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  28

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY ONE AND CATEGORY TWO
STRENGTH. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IRENE REACHES THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
260 MILES...415 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE LOOKOUT
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 61 MPH...98 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H. A STORM SPOTTER IN STACY NORTH CAROLINA
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 93 MPH...150 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. A NOAA BUOY IN
ONSLOW BAY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
963.1 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND
OVER THE WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE SPREADING
ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS
MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

Irene Forecast track as of 5amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 536amedt Aug 27 2011

Irene Forecast track as of 2amedt Aug 27 2011

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