Tropical Strom Emily August 1 2011

Tropical Storm Emily has finally formed after waiting what seems like an eternity. For many weather buffs like myself and even those who watch weather for a living, we were overjoyed earlier this evening when the National Hurricane Center declared 91L Tropical Storm Emily. For my previous posts of waiting and discussion, see Here.

Here are the specifics as of 7 PM EDT

LOCATION…15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI…80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI…565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

Here is the projected track of TS Emily at this time via the National Hurricane Center.

If you compare this track to some of the earlier models, Emily is well west of where they thought she would be. This is in part due to Emily being delayed in forming. Earlier projections had what will eventually become Hurricane Emily crossing near Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands.
Most of the models show Tropical Storm Emily impacting Hispaniola at this time and continuing North Northwest passing by the east side of Cuba coming close to the Bahamas and continuing on towards Miami Florida. This is by no means set in stone and anything can happen and will.
For Now as far as the east coast of the continental U.S. is concerned, Florida should be watching this system in earnest, especially Miami at this time.

Here are the current tropical Storm Watches and Warnings at this time –

Tropical Storm Warnings up for:
Dominica
Guadaloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra

Tropical Storm Watches up for:
U.S. Virgin Islands
St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Haiti
and the Dominican Republic

Here are the current computer model tracks as of 9:36 PM EDT

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