91L – Likely Tonight/Tomorrow Tropical Depression 5 possibly TS Emily

The National Hurricane Center as of 8pm EDT July 30 2011 is giving this wave a 90% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48hrs.

I believe from what I see, a Tropical Depression will form sometime in the early morning hours EDT. The tropical wave at this time is elongated along a west northwest to east southeast axis and still has no well-defined center. It appears there may be two areas within fighting to see which will remain. Until there is a defined center, it is hard to determine where this tropical systems track will take it. Computer models are coming more inline, but still differ enough that no one knows where it will go at this time.

This system is becoming better organized as seen from this infrared image.

Computer model forecast track –

Earlier posts on this system: here & here


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