The disturbance/wave currently designated as Invest AL90 continues to look better and more organized this evening, but still lacks a closed defined low level circulation. I think a closed circulation will form within the next 48 hours as the system slowly enters warmer more favorable waters in the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it were to develop a well defined circulation, it is unlikely to be upgraded to tropical depression Don before a recon aircraft verifies this during a scheduled mission tomorrow.
The National Hurricane Center is giving this tropical wave a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Here are the computer model forecast tracks for this system as it moves west northwest. Texas should be watching this system closely at this time. Should the track into Texas verify, it will be welcomed as they are experiencing a severe drought over much of the state.
Texas drought –